Principal Analyst, Forecasting Modelling

New Zealand Government; Wellington; On-site; NZD 120,000 - 146,000; Full time

Benefits offered by this job

KiwiSaver

Job summary

New Zealand Government is seeking a Principal Analyst to lead policy costings that inform funding and investment decisions across the education system. The role covers early learning, schooling, and education workforce, designing models to support Budget processes and long-term planning.

The role requires strong financial modeling, analytical rigor, and the ability to communicate complex ideas clearly to senior leaders and Ministers. A collaborative, public-service mindset is essential.

Qualifications

• Proven experience developing financial or statistical models in a complex setting.
• Strong analytical skills with ability to connect work to policy and investment decisions.
• Strong communication skills, able to explain complex ideas to non-technical audiences.
• Collaborative approach and ability to support a high-performing team.
• Experience engaging across agencies and with Ministers or senior leaders.

Responsibilities

• Design policy costings to support Budget processes, funding allocations and long-term system planning.
• Develop analytical approaches to model costs and impacts of high-profile policy options.
• Contribute to evidence-informed decision-making and real change in the education system.
• Provide trusted advice to senior leaders and Ministers.

Skills

Financial modelling

Statistical analysis

Policy costings

Communication skills

Collaborative work

Economic/finance policy background

Education

Tertiary qualification in economics/statistics/finance/policy/evaluation

Job description

Help shape the future of education in New ZealandHelp shape the future of EducationWe work to shape an education system that delivers equitable and excellent outcomesOur organisation is made up of talented and committed people around Aotearoa, from a wide range of backgrounds and cultures. While we work in different groups and on different things, we all strive every day to make the biggest difference we can for our students in our education system.About this role | Mo tenei turangaThis is a secondment or fixed-term opportunity for 6 months to cover a peak busy period.ASAP start.This Principal Analyst role is a unique opportunity to contribute to the development and delivery of high-quality policy costings that inform funding, policy and investment decisions across the education system.Working across early learning, schooling, and education workforce, you'll lead the design of policy costings to support Budget processes, funding allocations, and long-term system planning. You'll contribute to high-priority initiatives, manage complex and analytical work, and provide trusted advice to senior leaders and Ministers.This is a great opportunity for someone with proven technical expertise, a passion for cost modelling, skill in working with others from a range of disciplines, and a strong commitment to public value. You will be developing analytical approaches to model costs and impacts of high profile policy options, and contributing to evidence-informed decision-making and real change in the education system.Salary range: $120,171 - $145,560 per annum plus KiwiSaver (pro-rated). The successful candidate will be appointed at a salary which reflects individual skills and experience.For more details about the role, you can view the job description here.About you | Mohou akeWe're looking for a Principal Analyst who combines technical skill with big-picture thinking. You'll need to be confident developing and communicating robust analysis to support complex decision-making.You will have:Proven experience developing financial or statistical models in a complex settingStrong analytical skills, with an ability to connect your work to broader policy and investment decisionsStrong communication skills - including the ability to explain complex ideas clearly to non-technical audiencesA collaborative approach and commitment to supporting a high-performing teamA tertiary qualification in a relevant field (e.g. economics, statistics, finance, policy, evaluation)Experience engaging across agencies and with Ministers or senior leadersThe ability and willingness to adhere to the Public Service Standards of Integrity and Conduct.In return, we can offer you the opportunity to work on a high-impact, fast-moving programme of work where analytical insight directly shapes funding, policy and investment decisions. You'll be part of a team that values learning, high-quality work, and collaborative problem-solving.About our group and team | Matau ropu akeThe Forecasting and Modelling team (within Te Pou Korero - Digital Data) is responsible for producing the Ministry's major expenditure forecasts - including early learning, teacher salaries, and school operational funding. Our work directly informs Budget decisions and Ministerial advice.We also support policy development through targeted costings and modelling. Our focus is on delivering insights that are methodologically robust, transparent, and useful for decision-makers.You'll be part of a technically skilled, highly engaged team with a strong culture of learning, constructive challenge, and support. We work closely with analysts, policy teams, regional staff, and agencies like Treasury to ensure our work contributes meaningfully to system improvement.Are you ready to make a difference? | Kua rite koe mo tenei mahi?If this opportunity interests you, please submit your cover letter and resume by using the `apply' button. In your cover letter we'd like to know about you, your values, or anything else you'd like to share. We're keen to understand your motivations, strengths, transferable skills, and the diverse perspectives you will bring to the role.For further information, please contact Amie White, Acting Manager at [e-mail] close: Midnight, Wednesday 11th November 2026.We want our people to feel valued for their unique qualities and have a sense of belonging. If you require assistance or adjustments to fully participate in the recruitment process, please let us know.