Remote Senior Bayesian Modeling Lead

Willow Thrive; Abu Dhabi; Remote; AED 300,000 - 500,000; Full time

Job summary

Willow Thrive is seeking a Senior Bayesian Modeling Specialist to design, validate, and implement Bayesian models that quantify uncertainty and support decision making, all in a fully remote setup. You will apply probabilistic modeling, MCMC, and hierarchical approaches across large datasets, collaborating with data scientists, engineers, and stakeholders.

The role requires advanced statistics and strong programming (Python or R) skills, with clear communication of probabilistic results to

Qualifications

• Bachelor's or master's degree in Statistics, Mathematics, Data Science, Econometrics, Computer Science, or a related quantitative discipline.
• Significant professional experience in Bayesian statistics, probabilistic modeling, or advanced quantitative analytics.
• Advanced understanding of Bayesian inference, probability theory, statistical estimation, and posterior analysis.
• Familiarity with experimental design, forecasting, or risk modeling.
• Experience with large and complex datasets using SQL and analytical data platforms.

Responsibilities

• Design, develop, validate Bayesian models for prediction and decision support.
• Apply Bayesian inference to estimate parameters and quantify uncertainty.
• Define priors based on evidence, domain knowledge, and analytical requirements.
• Develop hierarchical and multilevel Bayesian models for complex datasets.
• Implement Bayesian regression, classification, time series, and probabilistic forecasting models.
• Apply MCMC, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, and other computational inference methods.
• Evaluate model convergence, diagnostics, and sampling efficiency.
• Conduct posterior predictive checks and sensitivity analyses.
• Translate posterior distributions and credible intervals into actionable recommendations.
• Develop reusable modeling frameworks and validation procedures.

Skills

Bayesian statistics

Probabilistic modeling

Analytical thinking

Communication skills

Education

Bachelor's or Master's in Statistics/Math/Data Science

Tools

PyMC

Stan

Python

Job description

Willow Thrive is seeking a Senior Bayesian Modeling Specialist to design, validate, and implement Bayesian models that quantify uncertainty and support decision making, all in a fully remote setup. You will apply probabilistic modeling, MCMC, and hierarchical approaches across large datasets, collaborating with data scientists, engineers, and stakeholders.

The role requires advanced statistics and strong programming (Python or R) skills, with clear communication of probabilistic results to