Senior Bayesian Modeling Specialist

Willow Thrive; Abu Dhabi; Remote; AED 300,000 - 500,000; Full time

Job summary

Willow Thrive is seeking a Senior Bayesian Modeling Specialist to design, validate, and implement Bayesian models that quantify uncertainty and support decision making, all in a fully remote setup. You will apply probabilistic modeling, MCMC, and hierarchical approaches across large datasets, collaborating with data scientists, engineers, and stakeholders.

The role requires advanced statistics and strong programming (Python or R) skills, with clear communication of probabilistic results to

Qualifications

• Bachelor's or master's degree in Statistics, Mathematics, Data Science, Econometrics, Computer Science, or a related quantitative discipline.
• Significant professional experience in Bayesian statistics, probabilistic modeling, or advanced quantitative analytics.
• Advanced understanding of Bayesian inference, probability theory, statistical estimation, and posterior analysis.
• Familiarity with experimental design, forecasting, or risk modeling.
• Experience with large and complex datasets using SQL and analytical data platforms.

Responsibilities

• Design, develop, validate Bayesian models for prediction and decision support.
• Apply Bayesian inference to estimate parameters and quantify uncertainty.
• Define priors based on evidence, domain knowledge, and analytical requirements.
• Develop hierarchical and multilevel Bayesian models for complex datasets.
• Implement Bayesian regression, classification, time series, and probabilistic forecasting models.
• Apply MCMC, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, and other computational inference methods.
• Evaluate model convergence, diagnostics, and sampling efficiency.
• Conduct posterior predictive checks and sensitivity analyses.
• Translate posterior distributions and credible intervals into actionable recommendations.
• Develop reusable modeling frameworks and validation procedures.

Skills

Bayesian statistics

Probabilistic modeling

Analytical thinking

Communication skills

Education

Bachelor's or Master's in Statistics/Math/Data Science

Tools

PyMC

Stan

Python

Job description

Job Title: Senior Bayesian Modeling Specialist

Location: United Arab Emirates (Remote)

Employment Type: Full-Time

Work Arrangement: 100% Remote — Work From Home

Level: Senior

About the Role

We are seeking an experienced Senior Bayesian Modeling Specialist to design, develop, validate, and implement Bayesian statistical models that support complex analytical and decision‑making processes. The successful candidate will apply Bayesian inference, probabilistic modeling, and computational statistical methods to quantify uncertainty, incorporate prior information, and generate reliable predictions from complex datasets. This fully remote role requires advanced statistical expertise, strong programming skills, and the ability to communicate probabilistic findings to technical and business stakeholders.

Key Responsibilities

• Design and develop Bayesian statistical models for prediction, estimation, classification, and decision support.
• Apply Bayesian inference techniques to estimate model parameters and quantify uncertainty.
• Define, evaluate, and document prior distributions based on available evidence, domain knowledge, and analytical requirements.
• Develop hierarchical and multilevel Bayesian models for complex, grouped, or longitudinal datasets.
• Implement Bayesian regression, classification, time series, and probabilistic forecasting models.
• Apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, and other computational inference methods.
• Evaluate model convergence, mixing, sampling efficiency, and computational diagnostics.
• Conduct posterior predictive checks and sensitivity analysis to assess model reliability.
• Compare alternative model specifications and evaluate the influence of prior assumptions.
• Develop Bayesian approaches for experimentation, A/B testing, risk estimation, and decision analysis.
• Identify data-quality issues, missing observations, outliers, and potential sources of statistical bias.
• Optimize model performance, computational efficiency, and reproducibility.
• Collaborate with data scientists, statisticians, engineers, researchers, and business stakeholders.
• Translate posterior distributions, credible intervals, and probabilistic results into actionable recommendations.
• Develop reusable modeling frameworks, analytical workflows, and validation procedures.
• Maintain technical documentation covering model assumptions, priors, inference methods, diagnostics, and limitations.
• Present complex statistical findings through reports, dashboards, and stakeholder presentations.

Qualifications and Experience

• Bachelor's or master's degree in Statistics, Mathematics, Data Science, Econometrics, Computer Science, or a related quantitative discipline.
• Significant professional experience in Bayesian statistics, probabilistic modeling, or advanced quantitative analytics.
• Advanced understanding of Bayesian inference, probability theory, statistical estimation, and posterior analysis.
• Practical experience developing hierarchical, multilevel, and Bayesian regression models.
• Strong knowledge of MCMC methods, convergence diagnostics, and posterior predictive validation.
• Proficiency in Python or R and relevant statistical programming libraries.
• Experience with Bayesian modeling frameworks such as PyMC, Stan, or equivalent tools.
• Knowledge of prior selection, sensitivity analysis, model comparison, and uncertainty quantification.
• Familiarity with experimental design, causal analysis, forecasting, or risk modeling.
• Experience working with large and complex datasets using SQL and analytical data platforms.
• Ability to assess statistical assumptions and explain model limitations clearly.
• Strong analytical reasoning, problem‑solving, and attention to detail.
• Excellent written and verbal communication skills.
• Ability to manage multiple analytical projects independently in a fully remote environment.

What We Offer

• 100% remote working arrangement within the stated employment framework.
• Competitive compensation based on qualifications and professional experience.
• Opportunities to work on advanced Bayesian modeling and probabilistic analytics projects.
• Professional development and continuous learning opportunities.
• Collaborative environment with international and multidisciplinary teams.