Operations Research / Systems Analyst (ORSA) – Modeling and Simulation (5403)

SMX; Hanover (MD); On-site; USD 123,000 - 206,000; Full time

Benefits offered by this job

Health insurance

Paid leave

Retirement plan

Job summary

SMX is seeking an Operations Research Analyst with a focus on modeling and simulation to support a Federal Agency’s personnel vetting, security, and counterintelligence operations. You will develop queueing models, discrete-event simulations, and predictive analytics to forecast workloads and identify bottlenecks, translating results into actionable recommendations.

The role requires 8 years of hands-on OR experience and 3–5 years in DoD/IC mission areas, with expert knowledge in queueing theory

Qualifications

• 8 years of progressive operations research experience with queueing, simulation and predictive analytics.
• 3–5 years supporting DoD/Intelligence Community missions such as vetting, security or insider threat.
• Expert-level queueing theory and discrete-event simulation knowledge.
• Hands-on simulation tools: Arena, AnyLogic, SimPy or similar.
• Strong statistical modeling, hypothesis testing, and time-series analysis.
• Proficiency in Python, R, or SAS with ML libraries.
• Ability to build and validate predictive models for workloads and cases.
• Experience with complex, messy real-world datasets and secure Govt environments.

Responsibilities

• Develop queueing models and discrete-event simulations to identify bottlenecks in operational pipelines.
• Analyze improvements to reduce turnaround times while maintaining quality and compliance.
• Conduct scenario analysis and what-if modeling for process changes.
• Build simulation models capturing stochastic variation and resource constraints.
• Validate model assumptions against historical data and SME input.
• Translate analytical outputs into data-driven recommendations for decisions.
• Present results to both technical and non-technical audiences; collaborate across teams.

Skills

Queueing theory

Discrete-event simulation

Statistical modeling

Predictive analytics

Python/R/SAS

Machine learning

Data visualization

Secure government environment

Clearance awareness

Education

Advanced degree in quantitative field

Tools

Arena

AnyLogic

SimPy

Job description

The Operations Research (OR) Analyst – Modeling & Simulation Focus provides advanced process modeling, simulation, statistical analysis, and predictive analytics across a Federal Agency’s personnel vetting, industrial security, and counterintelligence operations. This position develops queueing models, discrete-event simulations, and predictive models that enable the Federal Agency to identify process bottlenecks, forecast operational outcomes, and transition from reactive reporting toward proactive, data-driven decision support.

Essential Duties & Responsibilities

Process Modeling & Simulation

• Develop queueing models and discrete-event simulations to identify bottlenecks and inefficiencies within operational pipelines (personnel vetting, facility inspections, investigative workflows)
• Analyze and recommend process improvements that reduce turnaround times while maintaining required quality and compliance standards
• Conduct scenario analysis and what-if modeling to evaluate the impact of proposed process changes, policy modifications, or resource reallocations
• Build simulation models that capture stochastic variation, resource constraints, and operational policies to provide realistic operational forecasts

Statistical & Predictive Modeling

• Apply statistical analysis and risk modeling to prioritize assessments, optimize resource deployment, and identify emerging risk or threat vectors
• Utilize advanced mathematical and statistical modeling to detect anomalies, patterns, and trends within large, complex, and disparate data sets
• Develop predictive models that enhance the organization’s ability to forecast workload, prioritize cases, and respond to emerging conditions and threats
• Apply machine learning techniques for classification, clustering, anomaly detection, and pattern recognition in support of counterintelligence and insider threat missions

Model Validation & Analysis

• Validate model assumptions and outputs against historical operational data and subject matter expert input
• Conduct sensitivity analysis to understand model behavior under varying assumptions and parameter values
• Quantify and communicate uncertainty in model predictions and recommendations
• Document modeling methodologies, assumptions, and limitations to ensure transparency and reproducibility

Collaboration & Communication

• Work closely with data engineering specialists to define analytical dataset requirements and ensure data suitability for modeling
• Translate analytical outputs into objective, data-driven recommendations that support strategic and operational decision-making
• Present complex modeling results to technical and non-technical audiences through visualizations and clear narratives
• Participate in cross-functional team activities to maintain technical standards and share knowledge

Required Skills/Experience

• 8 years of progressive, hands‑on operations research experience, including demonstrated application of queueing theory, simulation, statistical modeling, and predictive analytics to real‑world operational problems
• 3–5 years of that experience supporting DoD or Intelligence Community mission areas such as personnel vetting, industrial security (NISP), counterintelligence, or insider threat
• Expert‑level knowledge of queueing theory and discrete‑event simulation, with demonstrated ability to model complex operational processes
• Hands‑on experience with simulation tools (Arena, AnyLogic, SimPy, or similar)
• Strong foundation in statistical modeling, hypothesis testing, experimental design, and time‑series analysis
• Demonstrated, hands‑on proficiency in an analytical programming language (Python, R, or SAS), including statistical and machine learning libraries
• Proven ability to build and validate predictive models that forecast operational outcomes
• Experience working with complex, messy real‑world datasets (missing data, inconsistent formats, temporal misalignment)
• Ability to translate analytical findings into objective, data‑backed recommendations for strategic decision‑making
• Experience working in secure (classified) government environments
• Secret clearance required (active or ability to obtain)

Desired Skills/Experience

• Advanced degree in Operations Research, Applied Mathematics, Statistics, Industrial Engineering, or a related quantitative discipline
• Familiarity with NISP, clearance adjudication processes, and/or insider threat/counterintelligence analytic frameworks
• Experience with machine learning frameworks (scikit‑learn, TensorFlow, PyTorch) for anomaly detection and pattern recognition
• Knowledge of Bayesian statistical methods and uncertainty quantification
• Experience with Monte Carlo simulation and stochastic modeling
• Familiarity with agent‑based modeling
• Model validation and verification methodologies (V&V best practices)
• Data visualization tools (Tableau, Power BI, matplotlib, seaborn)
• Knowledge of optimization methods (linear programming, heuristics) to better integrate with optimization specialists
• SQL and database querying skills to support data preparation for modeling
• Experience with feature engineering and data preparation for statistical and machine learning models

Funding Level: Funded

The SMX salary determination process takes into account a number of factors, including but not limited to, geographic location, Federal Government contract labor categories, relevant prior work experience, specific skills, education and certifications. At SMX, one of our Core Values is to Invest in Our People so we offer a competitive mix of compensation, learning & development opportunities, and benefits. Some key components of our robust benefits include health insurance, paid leave, and retirement.
The proposed salary for this position is:
$123,000—$206,000 USD

At SMX®, we are a team of technical and domain experts dedicated to enabling your mission. From priority national security initiatives for the DoD to highly assured and compliant solutions for healthcare, we understand that digital transformation is key to your future success.

We share your vision for the future and strive to accelerate your impact on the world. We bring both cutting edge technology and an expansive view of what’s possible to every engagement. Our delivery model and unique approaches harness our deep technical and domain knowledge, providing forward-looking insights and practical solutions to power secure mission acceleration.

SMX is an Equal Opportunity employer including disabilities and veterans.

Selected applicant may be subject to a background investigation and/or education verification.

SMX does not sponsor a new applicant for employment authorization or immigration related support for this position (i.e. H1B, F-1 OPT, F-1 STEM OPT, F-1 CPT, J-1, TN, E-2, E-3, L-1 and O-1, or any EADs or other forms of work authorization that require immigration support from an employer).