Member of Technical Staff, Economist

P-Zero Research; San Francisco (CA); On-site; USD 120,000 - 190,000; Full time

Job summary

P-Zero Research in San Francisco Bay Area seeks an economist to own a research agenda end to end: develop models of AI takeoff and estimate key parameters from unique data and experiments. You will identify assumptions that influence forecasts and pin them down with large-scale studies.

You will collaborate with academics, policymakers, and industry partners, and work with engineers to run experiments at scale on frontier models. Publications advancing safe pacing of AI R&D are valued.

Qualifications

• PhD in economics or equivalent experience.
• Strong empirical research track record.
• Experience with economic estimation methods.
• Familiarity with AI takeoff concepts.
• Experience with experimental design.
• Ability to turn ill-posed questions into tractable models.

Responsibilities

• Build and refine models of AI takeoff, and test which parameters drive their forecasts.
• Estimate their key parameters from public data and new experiments you design.
• Build relationships across academic, policy and industry communities.
• Work with our engineers to execute experiments at scale on frontier models.
• Design proposals for safely pacing automated AI R&D progress.
• Publish great papers that help the world prepare for the transformative effects of AI.

Skills

Empirical research

Structural estimation

Causal inference

Economics of innovation

Experimental economics

Industrial organization

Frontier AI familiarity

Data analysis

Light coding

Education

PhD in economics or equivalent experience

Tools

Python

Job description

About P-Zero Research

P-Zero Research is a public benefit corporation working to improve the long term trajectory of artificial intelligence. We aim to forecast and mitigate the risks of automated AI R&D.

Our recent work has involved improving takeoff forecasts by measuring the research taste of frontier models. As frontier labs move closer to automating their own research, we expect independent measurements and forecasts to become one of the main tools for pacing the frontier safely.

The role

As an economist on our technical team, you would own a research agenda end to end: developing models of AI takeoff and estimating their key parameters with data that no one else has. You would find the assumptions that move forecasts most and have the least evidence behind them, then pin them down with large-scale experiments and data from frontier labs.

In this role you will:

• Build and refine models of AI takeoff, and test which parameters drive their forecasts

• Estimate their key parameters from public data and new experiments you design

• Build relationships across academic, policy and industry communities

• Work with our engineers to execute experiments at scale on frontier models

• Design proposals for safely pacing automated AI R&D progress

• Publish great papers that help the world prepare for the transformative effects of AI

People will thrive in this role with:

• A strong track record in empirical research such as a PhD in economics or equivalent experience

• Relevant experience in some of:

  • Structural and production-function estimation

  • Causal inference from sparse or messy observational data

  • Economics of innovation and science of science

  • Experimental economics and measurement design

  • Industrial organisation, such as compute markets and lab competition

• Serious engagement with models of AI takeoff and automated AI R&D

• Hands‑on familiarity with frontier AI capabilities

• Enough comfort with light coding, alone or with AI coding agents, to analyse your own results

• The ability to turn an ill-posed question into a tractable model or estimate

• Alignment with P-Zero's mission to improve the long term trajectory of AI

Bonus points for:

• A background in growth theory or the economics of innovation

• Frontier-lab or METR/AISI-adjacent expertise

• Being based in, or able to relocate to, London or the San Francisco Bay Area

Location

We prefer people to work in person in London or the San Francisco Bay Area. We're open to remote for exceptional candidates, with regular overlap during our core hours (8-10am Pacific / 4-6pm UK).

Visas and relocation

We offer a relocation allowance for moves to London or the San Francisco Bay Area.

San Francisco Bay Area: we sponsor US work visas (typically O-1A, E-3 or TN) and cover legal and filing fees, including for dependants. Sponsorship isn't guaranteed for every candidate, but if we make you an offer we'll work with you and our immigration counsel to find the right route.

London: we can't sponsor UK visas at the moment, so you'll need an existing right to work in the UK or a visa you hold in your own right, such as a Global Talent visa.