Commercial Forecasting Assoc Dir

Amgen; Thousand Oaks (CA); Remote; USD 169,000 - 204,000; Full time

Benefits offered by this job

Stock options

Retirement plan

Medical insurance

Bonus eligibility

Flexible work model

Job summary

Amgen is seeking a Commercial Forecasting Associate Director to drive forecasting deliverables, engage Brand Leads and senior leaders, and align cross-functional stakeholders on forecast assumptions. You will quantify uncertainty with Monte Carlo and scenario planning while leveraging diverse pharmaceutical datasets and AI tools for enhanced forecasting accuracy.

In this role, you will influence strategic decisions on product development versus discontinuation, and collaborate with the

Qualifications

• Bachelor's degree in Business Administration, Marketing, Healthcare Management or related field.
• 6 years of experience in commercial forecasting or related occupation.
• Experience with forecasting models and handling large pharmaceutical datasets.

Responsibilities

• Serve as primary point of contact for Brand Lead and senior leaders on forecasting deliverables.
• Facilitate consensus among stakeholders to align forecast assumptions and expectations.
• Identify risks and opportunities to improve commercial potential and strategic decisions.
• Develop scenario planning and Monte Carlo analysis to quantify uncertainty in forecasts.
• Collaborate with CD&A to integrate insights and analytics across the organization.

Skills

Forecasting models

Monte Carlo

Scenario planning

AI tools integration

Data analysis

Education

Bachelor's degree in Business Administration, Marketing, Healthcare Management or related field

Tools

IQVIA Xponent

National Audit Rx

LAAD

Symphony Health

RISK/Crystal Ball

Anaplan

Job description

Career Category Value and Access Job Description

Join Amgen’s Mission of Serving Patients

At Amgen, if you feel like you’re part of something bigger, it’s because you are. Our shared mission—to serve patients living with serious illnesses—drives all that we do. Since 1980, we’ve helped pioneer the world of biotech in our fight against the world’s toughest diseases. With our focus on four therapeutic areas -Oncology, Inflammation, General Medicine, and Rare Disease- we reach millions of patients each year. As a member of the Amgen team, you’ll help make a lasting impact on the lives of patients as we research, manufacture, and deliver innovative medicines to help people live longer, fuller happier lives. Our award-winning culture is collaborative, innovative, and science based. If you have a passion for challenges and the opportunities that lay within them, you’ll thrive as part of the Amgen team. Join us and transform the lives of patients while transforming your career.

Commercial Forecasting Assoc Dir Duties

Primary point of contact for Brand Lead and senior Therapeutic Area leaders to engage in the forecasting deliverables; Facilitate consensus‑building among stakeholders to establish clear, transparent, and rigorous WW sales expectations for the pipeline assets by gaining their alignment and endorsement for forecast assumptions; Help leadership identify actionable strategies to improve commercial potential by identifying and prioritizing relevant risks & opportunities; Provide recommendations on whether to proceed with product development or discontinue certain projects based on market conditions, financial projections, and strategic goals; Analyze competitors and market dynamics to inform forecasting models and strategic decisions. Develop an objective point of view of brand strategy by integrating insights across multiple functions and capability areas; Leverage communication and interpersonal skills to influence leadership on recommended course of action; Quantify uncertainty with scenario planning and advanced simulation models including Monte Carlo analysis and statistical trending; Utilize an in‑depth understanding of diverse pharmaceutical data sources such as LAAD, National Audit Rx, Xponent, Epidemiology data sources and their nuances to develop and implement enhanced forecasting approaches and methodologies; Create and deliver effective presentations that are transparent and articulate all key variables in the forecast, ensuring clarity and comprehensive understanding for stakeholders involved in decision‑making processes; Collaborate with the broader CD&A (Commercial Data & Analytics) organization to integrate comprehensive insights and analytics knowledge into the development and refinement of forecasts to enhance the depth and accuracy of forecasts by leveraging a broad spectrum of insights across the organization; and Drive productivity and efficiency, streamlining forecasting processes where possible, developing best practices and leading internal forecasting initiatives as appropriate. May telecommute.

Requirements

Bachelor’s degree (or foreign equivalent) in Business Administration, Marketing, Healthcare Management or a related field and 6 years of experience in the job offered or in a commercial forecasting or consultant related occupation. The position also requires 6 years of experience in the following skills: 1. Develop patient‑based forecasting models, including dynamic patient flow modeling and cohort‑based projections, to inform product strategy in the biopharmaceutical industry; Quantitative analysis techniques, including statistical trending, time series analysis, regression modeling, smoothing techniques, and Monte Carlo simulation; Utilize commercial pharmaceutical datasets, including IQVIA such as Xponent, Symphony Health, National Audit Rx, and longitudinal patient data such as LAAD (Longitudinal Access and Adjudicated Data) for forecast development and market insights; Experience with global epidemiology data for incidence, prevalence, treatment rates, and line‑of‑therapy progression to support forecast modeling and strategic planning; Knowledge of global market access and reimbursement frameworks, including the ability to incorporate payer landscape and policy scenarios into forecasting and business decision models; Excel functions and forecasting tools, including pivot tables, lookup formulas, scenario modeling, and probabilistic modeling using software such as Microsoft Excel and RISK or Crystal Ball; Experience in oncology therapeutic area, with working knowledge of immuno‑oncology (I/O) treatment paradigms, novel emerging classes, competitive landscape, and clinical development trends; and Position also requires 2 years of experience integrating AI tools including Risk and Crystal Ball or ChatGPT and Copilot for enterprise systems including Anaplan.

Job type: Full‑Time position.

The annual salary range for this position in the U.S. is $168,730.00 - $204,224.00 per year.

Also, this position offers stock, retirement, medical, life and disability insurance and eligibility for an annual bonus or for sales roles, other incentive compensation.

What you can expect of us

As we work to develop treatments that take care of others, we also work to care for your professional and personal growth and well‑being. From our competitive benefits to our collaborative culture, we’ll support your journey every step of the way.

The expected annual salary range for this role in the U.S. (excluding Puerto Rico) is posted. Actual salary will vary based on several factors including but not limited to, relevant skills, experience, and qualifications.

In addition to the base salary, Amgen offers a Total Rewards Plan, based on eligibility, comprising of health and welfare plans for staff and eligible dependents, financial plans with opportunities to save towards retirement or other goals, work/life balance, and career development opportunities that may include: A comprehensive employee benefits package, including a Retirement and Savings Plan with generous company contributions, group medical, dental and vision coverage, life and disability insurance, and flexible spending accounts A discretionary annual bonus program, or for field sales representatives, a sales‑based incentive plan Stock‑based long‑term incentives Award‑winning time‑off plans Flexible work models, including remote and hybrid work arrangements, where possible.

In any materials you submit, you may redact or remove age‑identifying information such as age, date of birth, or dates of school attendance or graduation. You will not be penalized for redacting or removing this information.

Amgen does not have an application deadline for this position; we will continue accepting applications until we receive a sufficient number or select a candidate for the position.

As an organization dedicated to improving the quality of life for people around the world, Amgen fosters an inclusive environment of diverse, ethical, committed and highly accomplished people who respect each other and live the Amgen values to continue advancing science to serve patients. Together, we compete in the fight against serious disease.

Amgen is an Equal Opportunity employer and will consider all qualified applicants for employment without regard to race, color, religion, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity, national origin, protected veteran status, disability status, or any other basis protected by applicable law. We will ensure that individuals with disabilities are provided reasonable accommodation to participate in the job application or interview process, to perform essential job functions, and to receive other benefits and privileges of employment. Please contact us to request accommodation.

Amgen is committed to unlocking the potential of biology for patients suffering from serious illnesses by discovering, developing, manufacturing and delivering innovative human therapeutics.

This approach begins by using tools like advanced human genetics to unravel the complexities of disease and understand the fundamentals of human biology.

Amgen focuses on areas of high unmet medical need and leverages its biologics manufacturing expertise to strive for solutions that improve health outcomes and dramatically improve people’s lives. A biotechnology pioneer since 1980, Amgen has grown to be one of the world’s leading independent biotechnology companies, has reached millions of patients around the world and is developing a pipeline of medicines with breakaway potential.

For more information, visit www.amgen.com and follow us on www.twitter.com/amgen