Associate Director, GTN Strategy & Forecasting

Otsuka Pharmaceutical Companies (U.S.); United States; On-site; USD 150,000 - 224,000; Full time

Benefits offered by this job

Comprehensive medical, dental, vision

401(k) match

Paid holidays & time off

Tuition reimbursement

Job summary

Otsuka Pharmaceutical Companies (U.S.) seeks an Associate Director, GTN Strategy & Forecasting to lead multi-billion GTN projections and drive predictive modeling across channels and payer contracts.

You’ll influence financial guidance, pipeline strategies, and major pricing decisions while partnering with Pricing, Contracting, and Government Pricing teams in a complex healthcare market.

Qualifications

• Bachelor’s degree in finance, accounting, economics, or a quantitative field.
• MBA, CPA, or CFA designation is highly preferred.
• 5–7 years in pharmaceutical/biotech GTN finance or forecasting.

Responsibilities

• Lead GTN forecasting and modeling for major planning cycles.
• Analyze deduction streams across commercial/admin channels.
• Run scenario simulations for policy updates and launches.
• Coordinate with Pre-Deal, Government Pricing, and cross-functional teams.
• Ensure SOX/compliance and accurate close variance reporting.

Skills

GTN forecasting

Predictive modeling

Deductions analytics

Policy & scenario analysis

accrual strategy

Close variance analysis

True-up methodology

Government pricing insights

Data integrity

Executive storytelling

Education

Bachelor’s Degree in Finance/Accounting/Economics

MBA / CPA / CFA preferred

Tools

IQVIA

Symphony

Managed Markets Insights

Job description

The Associate Director, GTN Strategy & Forecasting is a critical financial and strategic role responsible for projecting and managing the multi-billion dollar revenue deductions across the company's portfolio. This role sits at the high-stakes intersection of commercial strategy and finance. The successful candidate will lead the predictive modeling for channel distribution and revenue erosion across all commercial and government segments. Your forecasting models will directly influence corporate financial guidance, pipeline commercialization strategies, and high-stakes Payer/PBM contracting decisions. You will be the definitive expert on how channel mix shifts impact the bottom line.

Key Responsibilities

• Gross-to-Net (GTN) Forecasting & Modeling
• Predictive Financial Modeling: Build and maintain dynamic forecasting models to project GTN discount reserves, pipeline accruals, and erosion percentages. This includes consideration for channel mix and discount rate predictions. Responsible for GTN forecasts for every major planning cycle.
• Deduction Stream Analytics: Analyze and forecast complex discount streams, including commercial rebates, Medicare Part D coverage gaps, Managed Medicaid rebates, 340B discounts, and patient copay assistance cards.
• Policy & Macro Scenario Simulation: Run predictive simulations to analyze the financial impact of major healthcare policy updates, inflation penalties, and pipeline drug launches on overall GTN health.
• Pre-Deal Incorporation: Work closely with Pre-Deal groups to understand and highlight overall GTN impact
• Accrual Strategy & Close Variance Analysis
• Month-End/Quarter-End Close: Partner closely with Finance & Accounting during financial close cycles to evaluate forecast-to-actual variances and adjust balance sheet accrual strategies.
• True-Up Methodology: Manage and optimize the pipeline "true-up" process, tracking delayed payer utilization data against historical accrual assumptions to prevent financial line-item surprises.
• Government Pricing Feedback Loop: Collaborate with the Government Pricing team to monitor how commercial contract updates alter Medicaid Best Price and Average Manufacturer Price (AMP),340B, factoring these shifts back into the core GTN model.
• Data Integrity Oversight: Validate and clean massive longitudinal datasets and healthcare data streams (e.g., IQVIA, Symphony, internal rebate systems) to ensure forecasting model inputs are accurate.
• Executive Insights & Leadership
• Cross-Functional Synthesis: Serve as the central financial hub connecting Pricing & Contracting, Brand Marketing, Finance & Accounting, Data & Analytics, and Government Pricing.
• Strategic Reporting: Translate data models into high-level, clear visual narratives for Budget and Forecast updates; drive strategic risks/opportunity discussions.
• Audit & Governance Compliance: Ensure all forecasting processes adhere strictly to internal financial controls, Sarbanes-Oxley (SOX) compliance, and accounting standards for revenue recognition.

Candidate Profile & Qualifications

• Education: Bachelor’s Degree in Finance, Accounting, Economics, or a highly quantitative field is required. MBA, CPA, or CFA designation is highly preferred.
• Experience: Minimum of 5–7 years of experience in the pharmaceutical or biotech industry, with a direct focus on GTN finance, commercial forecasting, or market access analytics.
• Data Expertise: Proven experience working with massive longitudinal datasets and healthcare data aggregators (e.g., IQVIA, Symphony, Managed Markets Insights).

Competencies

• Accountability for Results - Stay focused on key strategic objectives, be accountable for high standards of performance, and take an active role in leading change.
• Strategic Thinking & Problem Solving - Make decisions considering the long-term impact to customers, patients, employees, and the business.
• Patient & Customer Centricity - Maintain an ongoing focus on the needs of our customers and/or key stakeholders.
• Impactful Communication - Communicate with logic, clarity, and respect. Influence at all levels to achieve the best results for Otsuka.
• Respectful Collaboration - Seek and value others’ perspectives and strive for diverse partnerships to enhance work toward common goals.
• Empowered Development - Play an active role in professional development as a business imperative.

Compensation

Minimum $150,034.00 - Maximum $224,250.00, plus incentive opportunity: The range shown represents a typical pay range or starting pay for individuals who are hired in the role to perform in the United States. Other elements may be used to determine actual pay such as the candidate’s job experience, specific skills, and comparison to internal incumbents currently in role. Typically, actual pay will be positioned within the established range, rather than at its minimum or maximum. This information is provided to applicants in accordance with states and local laws.

Application Deadline

This will be posted for a minimum of 5 business days.

Company benefits

Comprehensive medical, dental, vision, prescription drug coverage, company provided basic life, accidental death & dismemberment, short-term and long-term disability insurance, tuition reimbursement, student loan assistance, a generous 401(k) match, flexible time off, paid holidays, and paid leave programs as well as other company provided benefits. Come discover more about Otsuka and our benefit offerings; https://ah-prod.com/multi/videoplayer/player.html?v=6385356920112.

Otsuka is an equal opportunity employer. All qualified applicants are encouraged to apply and will be given consideration for employment without regard to race, color, sex, gender identity or gender expression, sexual orientation, age, disability, religion, national origin, veteran status, marital status, or any other legally protected characteristic.

If you are a qualified individual with a disability or a disabled veteran, you may request a reasonable accommodation, if you are unable or limited in your ability to apply to this job opening as a result of your disability. You can request reasonable accommodations by contacting [e-mail].