Actuarial Forecasting Lead - Remote Risk Modeling

Acturhire; New York (NY); Remote; USD 180,000 - 240,000; Full time

Job summary

Acturhire is seeking an experienced Actuarial Forecasting Lead for a 12-month remote USA engagement. The role centers on building an integrated risk framework across insurance-driven claims, inventory valuation, and physical supply contracts.

The successful candidate will apply advanced stochastic modeling, Monte Carlo simulations, and rigorous governance to deliver actionable forecasts, with collaboration across Finance, Risk, and Supply Chain.

Qualifications

• Hold an active professional actuarial credential (ACAS, FCAS, ASA, FSA, or recognized international actuarial equivalent).
• Demonstrated hands-on professional experience developing or validating insurance claims-frequency, exposure-based, or comparable predictive-risk models.
• Demonstrated hands-on experience valuing physically delivered forward, offtake, volume-flex, commodity, or asset supply contracts with meaningful delivery obligations or embedded optionality; coursework alone is not enough.
• 8+ years of relevant experience spanning actuarial modeling, enterprise or asset risk, physical-market contract economics, and quantitative decision support.
• Bachelor's degree in actuarial science, statistics, mathematics, quantitative finance, economics, engineering, or related field.
• Advanced stochastic simulation, financial risk modeling, calibration, sensitivity analysis, tail-risk measurement, and correlated exposure evaluation.
• Strong hands-on Python and SQL proficiency; ability to design models, inspect code, and explain methods.

Responsibilities

• Insurance claims and exposure modeling | 25%: Build and validate probabilistic claims-frequency, cohort, and exposure models using insured-device populations, claims history, policy conditions, product mix, device age, churn, and external drivers.
• Inventory valuation and financial risk | 25%: Model depreciation, residual values, recoverability, liquidation discounts, price volatility, liquidity, obsolescence, and concentration across mobile-device inventory.
• Physical contract valuation and risk transfer | 20%: Price and assess physically settled forward purchases/sales, structured supply or offtake agreements, volume-flex commitments, and embedded optionality.
• Inventory portfolio optimization | 15%: Integrate demand and market-value simulations to evaluate risk-adjusted buy, hold, repair, transfer, sell, and hedge decisions.
• Technical modeling and governance | 10%: Write reproducible Python and SQL models, document data lineage, validation, backtesting, and model limitations.
• Cross-functional leadership and capability development | 5%: Establish common risk terminology, influence planning and procurement decisions, and mentor colleagues.

Skills

Actuarial modeling

Python

SQL

Stakeholder communication

Education

Bachelor's degree in actuarial science, mathematics or related

Tools

SQL

Monte Carlo

Job description

Acturhire is seeking an experienced Actuarial Forecasting Lead for a 12-month remote USA engagement. The role centers on building an integrated risk framework across insurance-driven claims, inventory valuation, and physical supply contracts.

The successful candidate will apply advanced stochastic modeling, Monte Carlo simulations, and rigorous governance to deliver actionable forecasts, with collaboration across Finance, Risk, and Supply Chain.