Lead Forecasting (f/m/d)

Axpo Group; Oslo; On-site; NOK 900,000 - 1,300,000; Full time

Job summary

Axpo Group is seeking a highly quantitative forecaster to own wind, solar, demand and price forecasting across Nordic markets. You will define KPIs, monitor forecast accuracy, and lead root-cause analyses while collaborating with traders, quants, and IT.

You will develop and operate ensemble forecasting methods and ML models, ensuring live systems have robust fallback logic, and interact with external weather/forecast vendors to optimize performance.

Qualifications

• Master's degree or equivalent in physics, math/statistics, meteorology, engineering, data science or CS.
• Experience in forecasting, analytics or data science, preferably in energy/power markets.
• Strong knowledge of statistical/ML forecasting methods and time series.
• Programming in Python and SQL; Git and Azure DevOps are advantageous.
• A commercial mindset linking forecast quality to trading outcomes and risk.

Responsibilities

• Own end-to-end quality of forecasts for wind, solar, consumption and production.
• Define KPIs, monitor performance and lead root-cause analyses.
• Develop ensemble models combining internal and vendor forecasts.
• Build and run statistical/ML forecasting models with cross-team collaboration.
• Manage relationships with external forecast vendors and make buy/build decisions.
• Participate in rolling day-ahead trading, including weekends and holidays.

Skills

Forecasting

Time series analysis

Probabilistic forecasting

Ensemble methods

Python

SQL

Git

Azure DevOps

Vitec Aiolos

English

Education

Master's degree in a quantitative field

Tools

Git

Azure DevOps

Vitec Aiolos

Job description

Workload: 100%

Shape the forecasts that power our trading decisions. Join us to turn wind, solar, consumption and price forecasts into measurable trading and risk outcomes across the Nordic power markets.

What you will do:

• Own the end-to-end quality of forecasts used by the Physical Trading Desk – wind, solar, consumption and production forecasts, and price forecasts for ancillary services, imbalance and spot markets

• Define forecast-quality KPIs, monitor performance continuously and lead root-cause analysis when forecasts miss the mark

• Develop and maintain ensemble methods that combine internal models and vendor forecasts to maximise accuracy and commercial value

• Build and operationalize statistical and ML forecasting models together with Intraday/Quant, Physical Operations and IT, including monitoring and fallback logic for live systems

• Manage relationships with external forecast and weather-data vendors, benchmark their performance and lead build-vs-buy decisions

• Take part in the rolling day-ahead trading schedule, including weekends and public holidays, to stay close to how forecasts are used in live trading decisions

What you bring & who you are:

• A master's degree (or equivalent) in a highly quantitative field such as physics, mathematics/statistics, meteorology, engineering, data science or computer science

• Experience in forecasting, quantitative analytics or data science – ideally within energy or power markets

• Strong knowledge of statistical/ML forecasting methods, including time series analysis, probabilistic forecasting and ensemble/meta-forecasting

• Programming skills in Python and SQL; experience with Git and Azure DevOps is an advantage

• A commercial mindset – you connect forecast quality directly to trading outcomes and risk, and communicate technical concepts clearly to traders and senior management

• Hands‑on experience with wind and solar forecasting; prior exposure to the Vitec Aiolos forecasting suite is an advantage

• Fluent in English; a Nordic language (Swedish, Norwegian, Finnish or Danish) is an advantage

• Even if you don't meet every point, we'd love to hear from you – especially if you're a strong communicator who enjoys mentoring colleagues and building forecasting competence across a team

About the team:

You'll join a close-knit team, working alongside traders, quants and engineers who value curiosity, collaboration and diverse perspectives.

At Axpo Group, we are dedicated to fostering a culture of non-discrimination, tolerance, and inclusion. As an equal opportunity employer, we welcome applications regardless of race and ethnicity, gender identity and expression, sexual orientation, age, disability, as well as socioeconomic, cultural, and religious background. We are committed to ensuring a respectful and inclusive recruiting process and workplace for everyone.