Prediction Markets Quant — Own End-to-End Research

Moreton Capital Partners; México; On-site; MXN 1,400,000 - 2,100,000; Full time

Job summary

Moreton Capital Partners is seeking a Quantitative Analyst to own the research function within our prediction markets team. You will drive the research process, develop alpha signals, build and validate models, and collaborate with traders and engineers to move research from idea to live deployment.

We operate across a broad event universe including sports, macroeconomics, geopolitics, climate, and financial markets.

Qualifications

• Undergraduate or postgraduate degree from a strong institution in data science, computer science, mathematics, statistics, operations research, financial engineering, or a closely related quantitative field
• Strong Python skills: pandas, NumPy, scikit-learn, and experience building backtesting or research frameworks from scratch
• Solid foundation in statistics, probability, time-series analysis, and machine learning — with the ability to apply these rigorously rather than just use libraries
• Demonstrated interest in prediction markets — personal trading, research, protocol analysis, or equivalent engagement. We expect you to know these platforms well
• Ability to work independently and take full ownership of a research workstream, not just execute tasks handed to you

Responsibilities

• Conduct rigorous quantitative research to identify new alpha signals across prediction market categories — sports, macro, political, financial, and environmental events
• Own the end-to-end research process in close collaboration with the Portfolio Manager: data sourcing and ingestion, exploratory analysis, methodology design, implementation, backtesting, and live performance evaluation
• Build and maintain data pipelines drawing on alternative and traditional data sources — market microstructure, public resolution data, news and sentiment feeds, sports analytics databases, and fundamental datasets
• Develop and improve models for fair value estimation, calibration analysis, and systematic strategy construction
• Extend and improve MCP's internal research platform — tools, libraries, and workflows that make the whole team faster and more rigorous
• Maintain a systematic review of the academic and practitioner literature on prediction markets, sports analytics, Bayesian forecasting, and related fields
• Produce clear, structured research outputs — documented methodology, performance attribution, and actionable recommendations — that can be directly used by traders

Skills

Python

Pandas

NumPy

scikit-learn

Statistics

Time-series

Machine learning

Independent work

Backtesting

Prediction markets

Education

Bachelor's or Master's in data science, computer science, mathematics, statistics, OR, or related quantitative field

Tools

Polymarket platform mechanics

Kalshi platform mechanics

NLP / sentiment analysis tools

Job description

Moreton Capital Partners is seeking a Quantitative Analyst to own the research function within our prediction markets team. You will drive the research process, develop alpha signals, build and validate models, and collaborate with traders and engineers to move research from idea to live deployment.

We operate across a broad event universe including sports, macroeconomics, geopolitics, climate, and financial markets.