Revenue Forecasting Specialist

London Waterloo; Greater London; Hybrid; GBP 50,000 - 61,000; Full time

Benefits offered by this job

Hybrid working

DC Pension Scheme

Office locations: London/Leeds/Birming

Job summary

DFTO is seeking a skilled forecasting analyst to help shape Britain’s rail revenue forecasting capabilities. You will develop and maintain national revenue models and run analyses that inform strategic decisions at senior levels.

Working within the Customer & Revenue Growth team, you’ll analyze passenger demand, fares, economic conditions and policy impacts, presenting findings to government bodies, operators and Network Rail. Hybrid London/Leeds/Birmingham base with travel to offices as needed.

Qualifications

• Strong analytical and problem-solving skills with an ability to work with complex data and models.
• Advanced Excel skills and experience developing or maintaining forecasting models.
• Expert PowerPoint skills, with experience of producing high quality presentations used effectively with a senior audience.
• Experience in forecasting, economics, analytics, finance, transport or a related field.
• Ability to challenge assumptions and assess uncertainty using evidence and judgement.
• Strong quantitative skills and an understanding of forecasting techniques.
• Excellent communication skills with the ability to explain technical concepts to non-technical audiences.
• Collaborative approach and ability to build relationships across organisations.
• Passion for improving forecasting methods and generating insight that influences decisions.
• Experience of rail, transport demand forecasting or commercial analysis would be advantageous but is not essential.

Responsibilities

• Support the production, maintenance and communication of national rail revenue forecasts.
• Maintain and develop the National Industry Revenue Model and associated forecasting tools.
• Analyse the key drivers of rail revenue performance and identify risks and opportunities.
• Assess the impact of economic conditions, consumer behaviour, operational performance, disruption and severe weather on revenue outcomes.
• Develop forecasting assumptions, scenarios and sensitivities for industry planning exercises.
• Evaluate the revenue impact of commercial initiatives, business plans and policy interventions.
• Provide ad-hoc forecasting and commercial analysis to support strategic decision making.
• Work with train operators, Network Rail, government and consultants to improve forecasting methodologies.
• Help shape the future forecasting framework and analytical capability for Great British Railways.
• Present complex analysis and forecasting insights to senior stakeholders.

Skills

Analytical thinking

Advanced Excel

PowerPoint

Forecasting

Data interpretation

Tools

Forecasting software

Job description

About DFT Operator

Join Our Team at DFTO

DFTO is the government's public sector rail owning group. Its purpose is to bring all currently privately-owned train operators into public ownership in advance of the creation of Great British Railways in 2027 - and deliver improvements in the here and now by unifying and integrating train operations under common public ownership.

DFTO has over 30,000 employees, runs over 11,000 services a day and delivers over 930 million customer journeys across its networks every year. 7,000 people joined the railway family in the last year

Major improvements are being delivered by DFTO train operators (TOCs) that are already under public ownership - these are LNER, Northern, TransPennine Express (TPE), Southeast, South Western Railway (SWR), c2c, Greater Anglia, WM Trains, GTR and Chiltern.

We work closely with the DfT but operate independently with our own governance and leadership teams. Our priority is ensuring efficient, dependable rail services for everyone.

Primary Purpose of Job:

Help shape the future of Britain's railway and the forecasting capability of Great British Railways.

This is a rare opportunity to influence not only the future revenue outlook of Britain's railway but also the forecasting framework that will support the transition to Great British Railways. As the industry evolves, robust forecasting will be critical to informing commercial strategy, government funding decisions and investment choices.

You will play a key role in developing the analytical approaches and forecasting methodologies that underpin decision-making across the future railway. Working within the Customer & Revenue Growth team, you will help develop and maintain the industry's revenue forecasting capability, providing insight into how passenger demand, economic conditions, fares policy, operational performance and commercial initiatives will affect future revenue.

Your analysis will be used by senior leaders across government, train operators and Network Rail to support decisions worth billions of pounds and help shape the long-term financial sustainability of the railway.

Key Responsibilities:

• Support the production, maintenance and communication of national rail revenue forecasts.
• Maintain and develop the National Industry Revenue Model and associated forecasting tools.
• Analyse the key drivers of rail revenue performance and identify risks and opportunities.
• Assess the impact of economic conditions, consumer behaviour, operational performance, disruption and severe weather on revenue outcomes.
• Develop forecasting assumptions, scenarios and sensitivities for industry planning exercises.
• Evaluate the revenue impact of commercial initiatives, business plans and policy interventions.
• Provide ad-hoc forecasting and commercial analysis to support strategic decision making.
• Work with train operators, Network Rail, government and consultants to improve forecasting methodologies.
• Help shape the future forecasting framework and analytical capability for Great British Railways.
• Present complex analysis and forecasting insights to senior stakeholders.

Knowledge, Skills, Experience & Technical Qualifications:

• Strong analytical and problem-solving skills with an ability to work with complex data and models.
• Advanced Excel skills and experience developing or maintaining forecasting models.
• Expert Powerpoint Skills, with experience of producing high quality presentations used effectively with a senior audience.
• Experience in forecasting, economics, analytics, finance, transport or a related field.
• Ability to challenge assumptions and assess uncertainty using evidence and judgement.
• Strong quantitative skills and an understanding of forecasting techniques.
• Excellent communication skills with the ability to explain technical concepts to non-technical audiences.
• Collaborative approach and ability to build relationships across organisations.
• Passion for improving forecasting methods and generating insight that influences decisions.
• Experience of rail, transport demand forecasting or commercial analysis would be advantageous but is not es

Vacancy Details:

Duration: Fixed Term up to 31st March 2028 contract/secondmentLocation: We currently have officesin London Waterloo, Leeds, BirminghamSalary:up to £55,000
Closing date: 18th November 2026

DFTO Locations:

DFTO currently have office locations in London, Birmingham and Leeds and individuals can be based from any of the three locations. Whilst we do offer hybrid working there are sometimes demands to travel to the other office locations.

DFTO Benefits:

Annual Leave: Starting at 25 days and rising to an additional day per year of service completed within the first 5 completed years up to a maximum of 5 additional (30 days)

DC Pension Scheme: 10% Employer contribution, 5% Employee contribution

Opportunities to learn and network across the wider industry

Additional Information...

Disclaimer: Candidates applying for this position on a secondment basis must inform their line manager prior to submitting their application. This is to ensure transparency and facilitate any necessary discussions regarding workload and responsibilities.

About our people and the recruitment process - We're an inclusive employer of choice and we welcome applications from everyone! We encourage our colleagues to work flexibly, as we know traditional working patterns don't always fit. If you want to consider working flexibly, just let us know and we'll do our best to help and invest in your career with us, whilst you have a healthy work life balance.

Contact

If you have any questions or reasonable adjustments, please contact [e-mail].