Political Analyst - Elections Forecasting

Obsidian; Berlin; Vor Ort; EUR 70.000 - 100.000; Vollzeit

Zusammenfassung

Obsidian is seeking a senior elections forecaster to author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from fixed evidence cutoffs in a fast-paced research environment.

You will make directional judgments about polling and odds, explain causal mechanisms for events’ political and market impact, and review model analyses against high standards of rigor and transparency. This role typically requires 8+ years of direct experience, or unusually strong evidence of equivalent performance.

Qualifikationen

• Live judgments about polling or odds
• Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis
• 8+ years direct experience or equivalent performance

Aufgaben

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard

Kenntnisse

Polling literacy

Forecasting

Causal analysis

Decision making

Jobbeschreibung

About the work

We are building expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. Each task asks a practitioner to reason from a fixed evidence cutoff — no hindsight — and document the judgment a strong analyst would have made at that moment.

This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events.

What you will do

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard

Who we are looking for

• A senior elections forecaster, campaign strategist, polling or statistical-methodology expert, or political-risk analyst
• A record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds — not retrospective commentary
• Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis
• Typically 8+ years of direct experience, or unusually strong evidence of equivalent performance

Backgrounds we look at first: top national polling and election-forecasting organizations, major decision desks, senior analytics teams from presidential, Senate or governor races, and political-risk desks at leading banks, funds, or firms such as Eurasia Group and EIU. Brand-name experience is a strong first-pass signal but is not a hard requirement — direct experience and performance on the work sample determine who qualifies.

Not a fit

Pure communications, journalism, or academic profiles without demonstrated forecasting, polling, or probabilistic judgment.

Point-in-time discipline

Every task is graded on reasoning from the stated cutoff without hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information.