Senior Demand Forecasting Manager

Seint; Saint George (UT); Hybrid; USD 90,000 - 140,000; Full time

Benefits offered by this job

Medical, dental, and vision insurance

HSA with company contribution

401(k) retirement plan with company贡献

Job summary

Seint is seeking a Forecasting Manager to lead product demand forecasting, turning sales history, launch plans, and market trends into data-driven inventory recommendations. You will build forecasts for new launches and existing products, monitor SKU performance, and identify opportunities to reduce stockouts and excess inventory.

You will collaborate with Fulfillment, Finance, Product Innovation, and Marketing to ensure inventory decisions are supported by reliable data and forecast accuracy

Qualifications

• 3–5+ years in demand planning, inventory planning, or supply/demand forecasting in consumer products or DTC environment.
• Hands-on experience with demand or inventory planning software and strong Excel/spreadsheet modeling skills.
• Strong quantitative and analytical skills and ability to defend a forecast model.

Responsibilities

• Forecast order quantities for new product launches and seasonal demand using historical performance and cross-department input.
• Build seasonal demand forecasts accounting for promotions and launch calendars.
• Manage SKU-level tiering and portfolio decisions to optimize inventory and reduce stockouts.

Skills

Demand planning

Inventory planning

Forecast modeling

Excel modeling

Analytical skills

Communication

Tools

Excel

Inventory Planner

Demand planning software

Job description

Job Summary:

The Forecasting Manager owns Seint’s product demand forecasting, turning sales history, product performance, launch plans, promotional activity, and market trends into clear, data-driven inventory recommendations. This role is responsible for building and maintaining forecasts across new launches and existing products, monitoring SKU performance, and identifying opportunities to reduce stockouts and excess inventory.

Working cross-functionally with Fulfillment, Finance, Product Innovation, and Marketing, the Forecasting Manager ensures inventory decisions are supported by reliable data while continuously improving forecast accuracy as actual performance and business needs evolve.

Essential Functions and Responsibilities of the job include but are not limited to:

Forecasting -

• Forecast order quantities for new product launches, rooted in historical performance of comparable items and from partnering cross-departmentally to understand launch ambitions, and support from different departments
• Build seasonal demand forecasts that account for how different times of year drive different volume, including known high-volume moments on Seint’s promotional calendar (e.g., BFCM)
• Analyze how new colors, shades, and products will cannibalize or shift demand on existing inventory, and adjust reorders proactively
• Work with Product Innovation on expected performance for each new product against the product roadmap, and reconcile those expectations against what the data supports
• Maintain a rolling forecast for existing product and update it as actuals come in
• Provide order recommendations to the Fulfillment team rather than placing orders directly

Product Performance -

• Categorize every item into A, B, or C tiers based on sales, and maintain the tiering as performance shifts
• Deliver a quarterly review of poor sellers with a recommendation on each: discontinue, rework, reposition, or leave alone

Accuracy and Improvement -

• Track forecast accuracy against actuals and report on variance
• Run post-launch reviews on new products: forecast versus actual, and what to apply next time
• Document assumptions behind each forecast so they can be challenged and improved

Inputs Beyond Sales History -

• Incorporate return rates by product, since a high-return item’s sell-through overstates real demand
• Account for planned promotions, marketing pushes, and Artist/Affiliate activity that will move volume
• Account for discontinuations and product transitions, including sell-down plans for items being replaced
• Factor in supplier lead times and sourcing risk, including international shipping and duty/tariff volatility, when building order-timing recommendations

Cross-Functional Collaboration -

• Partner closely with Fulfillment, since this role’s forecast is the direct input to Fulfillment’s manufacturer, vendor, and warehouse ordering decisions
• Partner with Finance on COGS forecasting and how demand assumptions flow into margin and cash planning
• Partner with Product Innovation on launch timing and expected volume for new products, and with Marketing on how planned promotions will move demand

Qualifications:

• 3–5+ years in demand planning, inventory planning, or supply/demand forecasting, ideally in a consumer products or DTC environment
• Hands-on experience with demand or inventory planning software, and strong Excel/spreadsheet modeling skills
• Strong quantitative and analytical skills — comfortable building and defending a forecast model, not just running one someone else built
• Experience managing SKU-level tiering and portfolio decisions (what to discontinue, rework, or reposition), not just top-line volume forecasting
• Clear written and verbal communication — this role regularly presents forecasts and variance to Operations, Finance, and Product stakeholders
• Comfortable working with incomplete or evolving data, and documenting assumptions clearly enough that others can challenge them
• Must have demand planning expertise within fast-moving CPG — beauty or cosmetics experience specifically is strongly preferred within that

Preferred Qualifications:

• Experience forecasting for a business with a hybrid distribution model (e.g., DTC alongside an affiliate, ambassador, or independent-seller channel)
• Experience managing forecasts through a major transition
• Experience with international sourcing and the lead-time/tariff considerations that come with it
• Experience working with Inventory Planner for building forecasting and variance dashboards

What Success Looks Like in the First Year

• A documented, defensible forecast methodology in place for both new launches and steady-state reorders, with assumptions anyone can review
• Forecast accuracy tracked and reported on a regular cadence, with variance actually driving changes to the model — not just recorded
• A clear, current ABC tiering across the full product portfolio, refreshed on a defined cycle
• Measurable reduction in stockouts on A-tier items and excess inventory on C-tier items
• A clean, well-documented forecast and sell-down plan, when needed

Benefits Include:

• Medical, dental, and vision insurance
• Health Savings Account (HSA) with company contribution
• 401(k) retirement plan with company contribution
• Life insurance
• Paid parental leave
• Gym membership reimbursement/benefit
• Hybrid work schedule
• Unlimited paid time off and company holidays