Revenue Forecast Analyst (TPS3)

State of Washington; Olympia (WA); On-site; USD 90,000 - 135,000; Full time

Job summary

The Department of Licensing (DOL) Office of Equity, Performance, and Accountability (OEPA) seeks a Tax Policy Specialist to join the Forecasting Unit. You will conduct complex analyses and develop what-if scenarios to forecast statewide revenue impacts and advise on policy options affecting Washington State transportation and public safety budgets.

This role requires advanced analytic skills, experience with econometric software, and the ability to communicate complex findings to executives,

Qualifications

• Two years of professional experience in forecasting and statistical analytics software.
• Two years of experience using Microsoft Office Suite (Word, PowerPoint, Outlook, Teams, SharePoint).
• Three years of proficiency in Microsoft Excel, including advanced features.
• Ability to present analysis and forecasts to executives and staff; write clearly.

Responsibilities

• Prepare and monitor quarterly revenue forecast for assigned revenue portfolio with econometric models.
• Prepare revenue impact assessments for fiscal notes and policy scenarios.
• Provide expert testimonies on tax policies and impacts as needed.
• Conduct tax studies, recommend policy options, and evaluate existing policies.
• Coordinate with program areas and staff to ensure data availability and accuracy.
• Respond to inquiries from legislative staff, OFM, and related parties.

Skills

Analytical thinking

Problem solving

Communication

Presentation skills

Team collaboration

Time management

Policy analysis

Education

Master's degree in economics, business, public administration, or related field

Bachelor's degree in Economics, Public Administration, or related field

Tools

SAS

Eviews

R

Microsoft Excel

Job description

We are dedicated to growing a culture of belonging through our values:

Respect | Trust | Diversity | Inclusion | Equity

At the Department of Licensing (DOL), we recognize the importance of work life harmony and strive to create a culture where employees feel valued and respected. Our employees are trusted and encouraged to be a part of process improvements that impact their work, create value for our customers and help build trust in our government.

Our Office of Equity, Performance, and Accountability (OEPA) is looking for a curious, analytic-minded, and customer service-oriented Tax Policy Specialist to join the Forecasting Unit.

As one of the most public facing state agencies and the second-largest revenue generator in Washington State, we engage with over 6 million residents each year and collect nearly $3 billion in taxes and fees revenue annually. We understand that our services are vital to the daily lives of our customers, enabling them to live, work, drive, and thrive. We take this responsibility to heart and are dedicated to providing equitable and meaningful access to our services for every Washington resident.

Forecasting Unit within OEPA is responsible for providing accurate and sound projection of revenue collected by DOL. This projection is critical for statewide financial planning, affecting among others transportation budget and public safety.

...please read on!

As a Tax Policy Specialist (Revenue Forecast Analyst) within the forecasting unit of OEPA, you will conduct complex analyses and studies concerning statewide tax policies and their revenue impacts. Your analytical and problem-solving skills will lead you to develop what-if scenarios based on revenue impact assessments that you have created. Using that expertise, you will be able to advise on the advantages and disadvantages of existing and proposed policies. You will monitor revenue and establish quarterly revenue forecast by researching and developing econometric, time series, and fiscal simulation models to provide revenue impact analysis for proposed legislative/policy changes affecting Washington State transportation.

Some of what you will do:

• Prepare and monitor quarterly revenue forecast for assigned revenue portfolio through researching, designing, and developing econometric, time-series, and fiscal simulation models.
• Prepare revenue impact assessments for DOL fiscal notes, decision packages, and other fiscal impact scenarios as assigned.
• Provide expert testimonies concerning tax policies and impacts as needed.
• Conduct tax studies, recommend policy options, and evaluate the existing policies.
• Coordinate with program areas, accounting, and information system staff to ensure data availability and accuracy.
• Respond to inquiries from outside related parties, legislative staff, Office of Financial Management staff, Transportation and Economic Revenue Forecast Council.

The work you will be doing is critical for statewide financial planning, affecting transportation budget, public safety, and the agency's ability to fulfill our purpose of, "Helping every Washington resident live, work, drive, and thrive."

What you will bring:

• Nine (9) years of professional experience in economic analysis or tax policy analysis.

OR

• Two (2) years of experience as a Tax Policy Specialist 1.

OR

• One (1) year as a Tax Policy Specialist 2

Up to four (4) years of relevant education in Economics, Statistics, Business, Public Administration, or closely related fields may substitute year for year for experience. (Associate degree = 2 years Bachelor’s degree = 4 years)

Experience must include:

• Two years of Professional experience in:
  • using forecasting and statistical analytics software, such as SAS, Eviews, and R.
  • applied mathematical and/or statistical analysis of data.
  • performing complex data analysis, financial modeling, and efficiently manage and manipulate large dataset.
• Two (2) years of experience using Microsoft Office Suite, including Word, PowerPoint, Outlook, Teams, and SharePoint. This includes the ability to create professional briefing documents, presentations, and manage email and calendar tasks effectively, ensuring seamless coordination and communication.
• Three (3) years of proficiency in Microsoft Excel, including advanced capabilities such as linked tables, Power Query, Power Pivot, and the creation and use of macros.
• The ability to:
  • Leverage digital tools to perform data analysis and complex financial modeling.
  • Analyze financial data, identify trends, and interpret complex information to make accurate predictions and strategic decision. This includes evaluating economic conditions and their impact on revenue forecast.
  • Effectively present analysis and forecasts to relevant parties, preparing detailed reports and explain complex concept in understandable manner.
  • Write clearly and concisely for executive level management, general public, legislative and OFM staff.
  • Use charts, graphs, and narrative concisely and effectively to communicate information, adapt presentations to audience's level of understanding, and ensuring that both technical and non-technical relevant parties understand the essential points. Follow-up and follow-through.
  • Independently perform complex research and impact analysis of current and proposed law and policies
  • Prioritize work, manage their time effectively, and deliver high-quality results within set timelines.
  • Be flexible in their approach and capable of adjusting plans and strategies in response to new information, shifting priorities, or unexpected challenges.
  • Work collaboratively within a team environment, contributing to group project, sharing knowledge, and supporting colleagues to achieve common goals. Must be able to treat everyone equitably and inclusively.
  • Manage multiple tasks and deadline efficiently.
  • Effectively coordinate activities, services, and schedules to ensure smooth and efficient operation of work.
  • Take the initiative to identify opportunities for improvement, develop innovative solutions and drive project forward without constant supervision. This includes staying updated with portfolio's industry trends and best practices.
  • Understand and follow agency values of respect, trust, diversity, equity and inclusion through behaviors and decisions.
  • Promote and support a respectful, equitable, and inclusive workplace for all employees.
  • Promote and support respectful, equitable, and inclusive delivery of services to customers.
  • Take action to learn and grow.
  • Take action to meet the needs of others.

*Experience can be obtained concurrently*

What may help set you apart:

• A Master's Degree in economics, business, public administration, or a related field.
• Two (2) years of experience with statistical software such as R, SAS, EViews, or STATA.
• Advanced Excel data manipulation skills such as linked table, Pivot tables, Macros, and Power queries.
• Ability to query data with either SQL server, SAS, or Excel.
• Excellent verbal and written communication: prepare, review, summarize, and presenting information in a clear, concise, and accurate manner that meet the needs of diverse audiences.
• Excellent organizational skills, including ability to coordinate and prioritize multiple projects and meeting deadlines, with continuous improvement in mind.
• The ability to:
  • Discuss technical forecast and legislation/policy, and recommendation in layperson term.
  • Demonstrate knowledge of State of Washington's budget/fiscal/revenue policies, processes, and financial system.
  • Demonstrate knowledge of legislative process, bill analysis, and fiscal note financial impact modeling. Ensure accuracy and appropriateness of supporting assumption, close coordination and collaboration with DOL program staff and other internal and external relevant parties.
  • Understand and synthesize large amount of financial and policy information, and approach problem solving in supportive, logical, and solution-oriented manner.
  • Work collaboratively in a team environment, effectively manage tasks, work efficiently, creatively solve problems, and handle difficult situations, in order to achieve agency goals.

Additional Conditions of employment:

• Prior to a new hire, a preemployment check including, Abstract of Driver Record (ADR) and criminal record history will be conducted. Information from the background check will not necessarily preclude employment but will be considered in determining the applicant’s suitability and competence to perform in the position.
• This position is expected to work at a minimum one (1) day per month in-office or more as business needs arise.
• The ability to travel to our Olympia office to meet business needs.

DOL is committed to the full inclusion of all qualified individuals. In keeping with our commitment, we will take the steps to ensure that people with disabilities are provided reasonable accommodations.

For information about available accommodations, the interview process, or the position contact Kyle Odell.

Come join us in changing the way government delivers services and help build a legacy of commitment to and excellence in diversity, equity, and inclusion!

You are welcome to include the name and pronoun you would like to be referred to in your materials and we will honor this as you interact with our award-winning diverse and inclusive organization.

We value diverse perspectives and life experiences.We employ and serve people of all backgrounds including people of color, immigrants, refugees, women, LGBTQ+, people with disabilities, and veterans. We value the unique traits and attributes that each employee brings to the job. Through the diverse perspectives of an inclusive workforce, we will create a more respectful, productive, and unified team to better serve the public of Washington.

Veteran/Military Spouse Preference Notice

To take advantage of your veteran / military spouse preference please attach documentation of eligibility to your application.

The Washington State Department of Licensing is an equal opportunity employer and does not discriminate on the basis of age, sex (including gender identity), marital status, sexual orientation, race, religion, creed, color, national origin, honorably discharged veteran or military status, or the presence of any sensory, mental, or physical disability or the use of a trained dog guide or service animal by a person with a disability.

Persons requiring accommodation in the application process, during the recruitment process, or who need this job announcement in an alternative format, may contact the Human Resources Office at 360-902-4000 or may email [e-mail]. Applicants who are deaf or hard of hearing may call our ASL interpreter via Video Phone at 360.339.7344.

The candidate pool certified from this recruitment may be used to fill future similar vacancies for up to sixty days.

We do not use the E-Verify system; therefore, we are not eligible to extend STEM Optional Practical Training (OPT). For more information, please visit www.uscis.gov.

Candidates who are offered a job with DOL must possess work authorization that does not require sponsorship by the employer for a visa now or in the future.