Prediction Researcher: Calibrated Agent‑Based Forecasts

Aaru Inc.; New York, Northern (NY, KY); Hybrid; USD 200,000 - 600,000; Full time

Benefits offered by this job

Equity

Job summary

Aaru Inc. in New York builds simulations of human behavior using AI agents to test decisions before they occur, from pricing to policy.

The team works in person, with urgency, ownership, and intellectual honesty to surface inconvenient evidence. As a Prediction Researcher, you will own high‑value forecasting questions, design datasets, and develop calibration‑driven methods that survive holdouts and changing environments, collaborating across Population Research, Evaluation Research, and

Qualifications

• Own high-value research questions in forecasting, agentic prediction, or calibration.
• Design experiments, construct baselines, and select evidence-driven methods.
• Ensure results are interpretable, calibrated, and reproducible.

Responsibilities

• Own a high-value research question in forecasting, aggregate behavioral prediction, calibration, conditioning, subgroup decomposition, drift, or agentic prediction.
• Turn ambiguous questions into falsifiable hypotheses, strong baselines, appropriate datasets, decisive experiments, and explicit criteria for success or stopping.
• Build prediction methods from real-world records such as transactions, product usage, event histories, operational data, market data, surveys, customer data, and longitudinal outcomes.
• Combine language models with structured data, retrieval, tools, quantitative models, and inference-time reasoning when the combination produces measurable value.
• Develop estimates of population behavior and determine how those estimates vary with attributes, prior behavior, information exposure, environment, time, and intervention.

Job description

Aaru Inc. in New York builds simulations of human behavior using AI agents to test decisions before they occur, from pricing to policy.

The team works in person, with urgency, ownership, and intellectual honesty to surface inconvenient evidence. As a Prediction Researcher, you will own high‑value forecasting questions, design datasets, and develop calibration‑driven methods that survive holdouts and changing environments, collaborating across Population Research, Evaluation Research, and