Modeling and Forecasting Manager

Metro; Portland (OR); Hybrid; USD 135,000 - 172,000; Full time

Job summary

Metro in Portland, Oregon seeks a Modeling and Forecasting Manager to lead a multidisciplinary team performing transportation and land use forecasting and regional planning analyses. You will manage scopes, timelines, and budgets while coordinating with internal teams and external stakeholders to shape regional investments and policy decisions.

The role requires advancing forecasting methodologies, guiding projects for RTP/MTIP, and ensuring alignment with state and federal requirements.

Qualifications

• Bachelor's degree in a related field AND
• Five years leading or supervising people AND
• Two years project management experience in area of responsibility OR
• Any combination of education and experience that provides the necessary knowledge, skills, and abilities to perform the classification duties and responsibilities.

Responsibilities

• Lead and oversee a multidisciplinary team responsible for transportation and land use modeling, forecasting, and regional planning initiatives.
• Direct the creation of forecasting and technical analyses to support RTP/MTIP and corridor studies.
• Provide modeling leadership for FTA funding initiatives, including CIG applications.
• Guide planning efforts supporting GHG targets and UGB decisions.
• Collaborate with planning, policy, and program teams to identify forecasting needs and deliver data-driven analyses.

Skills

Forecasting

Leadership

Budget management

Stakeholder engagement

Data analysis

Land use forecasting

Team management

Education

Bachelor's degree in related field

Tools

INRIX

StreetLight

Job description

Hello, we’re Metro! Metro is dedicated to shaping a better future for the greater Portland region. The work the people of Metro do every day benefits the lives of the people who live here, today, and tomorrow.

The Planning, Development, and Research Department leads the development of regional land use and transportation policies that shape the future of the metropolitan region. We are seeking a collaborative and strategic Modeling and Forecasting Manager to lead a team responsible for the forecasting, modeling, and analytical work that informs major transportation investments, growth management decisions, climate planning efforts, and long-range regional policy development.

The ideal candidate is an inclusive and adaptive leader who can inspire staff around a vision for the future of transportation and land use forecasting while ensuring projects are delivered on time and within budget. This role partners with internal teams and external stakeholders to identify forecasting needs, develop scopes of work, manage timelines and budgets, and deliver the technical analyses that support data-driven decision-making across the region. The successful candidate will combine proven leadership ability, technical expertise, and relationship‑building skills to help shape the region’s future.

As the Modeling and Foresting Manager, you will:

• Lead and oversee a multidisciplinary team responsible for transportation and land use modeling, forecasting, and related regional planning initiatives.
• Direct the creation of forecasting and technical analysis to support major regional planning efforts, including the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP), Metropolitan Transportation Improvement Program (MTIP), transportation corridor studies, project development, and NEPA compliance activities.
• Provide modeling and forecasting leadership for Federal Transit Administration (FTA) funding initiatives, including Capital Investment Grant (CIG) applications and other federal grant submittals.
• Guide regional planning and forecasting efforts that support state‑mandated greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets, urban growth boundary (UGB) decisions, and long‑range land use planning.
• Partner with planning, policy, and program teams across Metro and external agency stakeholders to identify forecasting needs and deliver data‑driven analyses that inform transportation investments and policy decisions.
• Collaborate with Data Stewardship and Data Analytics & Applications teams to integrate and analyze land use, housing, economic, demographic, infrastructure, zoning, and transportation data.
• Lead the research, development, maintenance, and continuous improvement of travel demand models, forecasting tools, and transportation data resources, while staying current on emerging technologies and industry best practices.
• Develop and manage section budgets, including budget narratives, financial tracking, federal funding coordination through the Unified Planning Work Program (UPWP), and ongoing budget‑to‑actual performance monitoring.
• Provide full supervisory leadership for professional and supervisory staff, including hiring, performance management, employee development, coaching, discipline, workforce planning, and fostering a collaborative, high‑performing team culture.
• Direct section operations, work planning, resource allocation, and contracting activities, while ensuring projects, consultants, data management practices, and software development processes align with industry standards, organizational goals, and state‑of‑the‑practice modeling and forecasting methodologies.

Attributes for success

• Ability to build and maintain positive and effective working relationships with staff, jurisdictional partners, community members and community partner organizations who have different opinions and life experiences.
• Empathetic listener who can inspire and engage a diverse range of staff and managers across the department/agency.
• Effective communicator who is experienced with presentations and facilitating difficult conversations.
• Strategic thinker who can identify options and chart a course of actions to lead projects to successful conclusions.
• Highly organized, with the ability to develop realistic timelines when working across teams.
• Expertise in land use and transportation forecasting tool development, maintenance, and use.
• Experience in use of forecasting data in land use and transportation planning, policy and project analysis, performance metrics, and visualization.
• Experience in equity‑aware modeling practices recognizing how data, models, and forecasts are shaped by historical, structural, and systemic factors.

DIVERSITY AND INCLUSION

At Metro, we strive to cultivate diversity, advance equity, and practice inclusion in all its work. This means attracting and empowering a workforce that is inclusive of a broad range of human qualities. Workplace diversity is both a moral imperative and a business strength, essential to providing quality support and services to our region. Metro’s goal is to hire, develop and retain highly skilled and talented individuals across all departments and programs who best reflect the diversity of our community.

Learn more about how Metro is advancing diversity

TO QUALIFY

We will consider any combination of relevant work experience, volunteering, education, and transferable skills as qualifying unless an item or section is labeled required. Please be clear and specific in your application materials on how your background is relevant.

Minimum Qualifications:

• Bachelor's degree in the area of assignment or a related field AND
• Five years leading or supervising people AND
• Two years project management experience in area of responsibility OR
• Any combination of education and experience that provides the necessary knowledge, skills, and abilities to perform the classification duties and responsibilities.

If this statement is true for you, then you may be ineligible to apply

If you were terminated for cause during any employment with Metro, or resigned in lieu of termination, you may be ineligible for rehire for a minimum of 3 years.

Hybrid Telework

This position is designated as “hybrid telework.” You will be required to work onsite and at times have the option to work away from your assigned work location. The specific schedule and balance of onsite and telework will be discussed with the hiring manager at the time of offer.

Employees must reside in Oregon or Washington to work at Metro. Please note, the designation of hybrid telework may be subject to change at a future time.

Like to have qualifications

You do not need to have the following preferred qualifications/transferable skills to qualify. However, keep in mind we may consider them when identifying the most qualified candidates. Your transferable skills are any skills you have gained through education, work experience, including the military, or life experience that are relevant for this position.

Knowledgeable of traffic data tools use and analysis (e.g. INRIX or StreetLight)

SCREENING AND EVALUATION

The selection process: We expect to evaluate candidates for this recruitment as follows. The selection process is subject to change.

• Initial review of minimum qualifications
• In‑depth evaluation of application materials to identify the most qualified candidates
• Consideration of top candidates/interviews
• Testing/assessments (if applicable)
• Reference check

COMPENSATION, BENEFITS AND REPRESENTATON

The full‑salary range for this position is step 1, $134,836.98 to step 6, $172,089.69. However, unless a candidate’s qualifications justify, based on the Oregon Pay Equity Act requirements and Metro’s internal equity review process, the appointment will likely be made between Step 1, $134,836.98 to the equity range Step 3, $148,658.11.

This position is not eligible for overtime and is non‑represented. It is classified as a Manager II.

Classification descriptions are typically written broadly and do not include the specific duties and responsibilities of the positions. View the classification description.

Minimum Qualifications:

• Bachelor's degree in the area of assignment or a related field AND
• Five years leading or supervising people AND
• Two years project management experience in area of responsibility OR
• Any combination of education and experience that provides the necessary knowledge, skills, and abilities to perform the classification duties and responsibilities.

If this statement is true for you, then you may be ineligible to apply

If you were terminated for cause during any employment with Metro, or resigned in lieu of termination, you may be ineligible for rehire for a minimum of 3 years.

Hybrid Telework

This position is designated as “hybrid telework.” You will be required to work onsite and at times have the option to work away from your assigned work location. The specific schedule and balance of onsite and telework will be discussed with the hiring manager at the time of offer.

Employees must reside in Oregon or Washington to work at Metro. Please note, the designation of hybrid telework may be subject to change at a future time.

Like to have qualifications

You do not need to have the following preferred qualifications/transferable skills to qualify. However, keep in mind we may consider them when identifying the most qualified candidates. Your transferable skills are any skills you have gained through education, work experience, including the military, or life experience that are relevant for this position.

Knowledgeable of traffic data tools use and analysis (e.g. INRIX or StreetLight)