Modeling & Forecasting Manager

Oregonmetro; Oregon; Hybrid; USD 135,000 - 172,000; Full time

Job summary

Metro in Oregon is seeking a Modeling and Forecasting Manager to lead a team responsible for forecasting, modeling, and analytical work informing major transportation investments and long-range regional policy development.

The role requires proven leadership, technical expertise, and collaboration with internal teams and external stakeholders to deliver data-driven analyses that support decisions for the region.

Qualifications

• Bachelor's degree in the area of assignment or a related field.
• Five years leading or supervising people.
• Two years project management experience in area of responsibility.

Responsibilities

• Lead a multidisciplinary team for transportation and land use forecasting.
• Direct forecasts and analyses for RTP, MTIP, corridor studies, and NEPA.
• Provide forecasting leadership for FTA funding and CIG applications.
• Guide planning that supports GHG targets, UGB decisions, and long-range land use.
• Collaborate with internal/ external teams to identify forecasting needs and deliver analyses.
• Integrate land use, housing, econ, demographics, and transportation data.
• Develop and improve travel demand models and forecasting tools.
• Manage budgets, UPWP coordination, and budget-to-actual tracking.
• Provide supervisory leadership including hiring, performance, and development.
• Direct section operations, work planning, and contracting.

Skills

Leadership experience

Project management

Education

Bachelor's degree in related field

Job description

Hello, we’re Metro! Metro is dedicated to shaping a better future for the greater Portland region. The work the people of Metro do every day benefits the lives of the people who live here, today, and tomorrow.

The Planning, Development, and Research Department leads the development of regional land use and transportation policies that shape the future of the metropolitan region. We are seeking a collaborative and strategic Modeling and Forecasting Manager to lead a team responsible for the forecasting, modeling, and analytical work that informs major transportation investments, growth management decisions, climate planning efforts, and long-range regional policy development.

The ideal candidate is an inclusive and adaptive leader who can inspire staff around a vision for the future of transportation and land use forecasting while ensuring projects are delivered on time and within budget. This role partners with internal teams and external stakeholders to identify forecasting needs, develop scopes of work, manage timelines and budgets, and deliver the technical analyses that support data-driven decision-making across the region. The successful candidate will combine proven leadership ability, technical expertise, and relationship-building skills to help shape the region's future.

As the Modeling and Foresting Manager, you will:

• Lead and oversee a multidisciplinary team responsible for transportation and land use modeling, forecasting, and related regional planning initiatives.
• Direct the creation of forecasting and technical analysis to support major regional planning efforts, including the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP), Metropolitan Transportation Improvement Program (MTIP), transportation corridor studies, project development, and NEPA compliance activities.
• Provide modeling and forecasting leadership for Federal Transit Administration (FTA) funding initiatives, including Capital Investment Grant (CIG) applications and other federal grant submittals.
• Guide regional planning and forecasting efforts that support state-mandated greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets, urban growth boundary (UGB) decisions, and long-range land use planning.
• Partner with planning, policy, and program teams across Metro and external agency stakeholders to identify forecasting needs and deliver data-driven analyses that inform transportation investments and policy decisions.
• Collaborate with Data Stewardship and Data Analytics & Applications teams to integrate and analyze land use, housing, economic, demographic, infrastructure, zoning, and transportation data.
• Lead the research, development, maintenance, and continuous improvement of travel demand models, forecasting tools, and transportation data resources, while staying current on emerging technologies and industry best practices.
• Develop and manage section budgets, including budget narratives, financial tracking, federal funding coordination through the Unified Planning Work Program (UPWP), and ongoing budget-to-actual performance monitoring.
• Provide full supervisory leadership for professional and supervisory staff, including hiring, performance management, employee development, coaching, discipline, workforce planning, and fostering a collaborative, high‑performing team culture.
• Direct section operations, work planning, resource allocation, and contracting activities, while ensuring projects, consultants, data management practices, and software development processes align with industry standards, organizational goals, and state‑of‑the‑practice modeling and forecasting methodologies.

Attributes for success

• Ability to build and maintain positive and effective working relationships with staff, jurisdictional partners, community members and community partner organizations who have different opinions and life experiences.
• Empathetic listener who can inspire and engage a diverse range of staff and managers across the department/agency.
• Effective communicator who is experienced with presentations and facilitating difficult conversations.
• Strategic thinker who can identify options and chart a course of actions to lead projects to successful conclusions.
• Highly organized, with the ability to develop realistic timelines when working across teams.
• Expertise in land use and transportation forecasting tool development, maintenance, and use.
• Experience in use of forecasting data in land use and transportation planning, policy and project analysis, performance metrics, and visualization.
• Experience in equity‑aware modeling practices recognizing how data, models, and forecasts are shaped by historical, structural, and systemic factors.

DIVERSITY AND INCLUSION

At Metro, we strive to cultivate diversity, advance equity, and practice inclusion in all its work. This means attracting and empowering a workforce that is inclusive of a broad range of human qualities. Workplace diversity is both a moral imperative and a business strength, essential to providing quality support and services to our region. Metro’s goal is to hire, develop and retain highly skilled and talented individuals across all departments and programs who best reflect the diversity of our community.

Learn more about how Metro is advancing diversity

TO QUALIFY

We will consider any combination of relevant work experience, volunteering, education, and transferable skills as qualifying unless an item or section is labeled required. Please be clear and specific in your application materials on how your background is relevant.

Minimum Qualifications:

• Bachelor's degree in the area of assignment or a related field AND
• Five years leading or supervising people AND
• Two years project management experience in area of responsibility OR
• Any combination of education and experience that provides the necessary knowledge, skills, and abilities to perform the classification duties and responsibilities.

If this statement is true for you, then you may be ineligible to apply

If you were terminated for cause during any employment with Metro, or resigned in lieu of termination, you may be ineligible for rehire for a minimum of 3 years.

Hybrid Telework

This position is designated as “hybrid telework.” You will be required to work onsite and at times have the option to work away from your assigned work location. The specific schedule and balance of onsite and telework will be discussed with the hiring manager at the time of offer. Employees must reside in Oregon or Washington to work at Metro. Please note, the designation of hybrid telework may be subject to change at a future time.

Like to have qualifications

You do not need to have the following preferred qualifications/transferable skills to qualify. However, keep in mind we may consider them when identifying the most qualified candidates. Your transferable skills are any skills you have gained through education, work experience, including the military, or life experience that are relevant for this position.

• Knowledgeable of traffic data tools use and analysis (e.g. INRIX or StreetLight)

COMPENSATION, BENEFITS AND REPRESENTATON

The full‑salary range for this position is step 1, $134,836.98 to step 6, $172,089.69. However, unless a candidate’s qualifications justify, based on the Oregon Pay Equity Act requirements and Metro’s internal equity review process, the appointment will likely be made between Step 1, $134,836.98 to the equity range Step 3, $148,658.11.

This position is not eligible for overtime and is non‑represented. It is classified as a Manager II.

Classification descriptions are typically written broadly and do not include the specific duties and responsibilities of the positions. View the classification description.

Equal employment opportunity

All qualified persons will be considered for employment without regard to race, color, religion, sex, national origin, age, marital status, familial status, gender identity and expression, sexual orientation, disability for which a reasonable accommodation can be made, or any other status protected by law.

Non-discrimination in hiring decisions

Metro is committed to equal employment opportunity and complies with all applicable federal, state, and local civil rights laws. Metro employment decisions – including recruitment, screening, interviewing, selection, promotion, compensation, and separation – must not discriminate based on race, color, national origin, ethnicity, religion, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity, disability, age, veteran status, or any other protected class.

Accommodation

Metro will gladly provide a reasonable accommodation to anyone whose specific disability prevents them from completing this application or participating in this recruitment process. Please contact the recruiter outlined in the job announcement in advance to request assistance.

Veterans' preference

Under Oregon Law, qualified veterans may be eligible for veterans' preference when applying for Metro positions. If you are a veteran and would like to be considered for a veterans' preference for this job, please provide qualifying documents as instructed during the application process.

Pay equity at Metro

No matter who you are or where you work at Metro, you deserve to be paid fairly for the work you do.Every worker must get equal pay for equal work regardless of your gender, race, age, or other protected characteristics. Metro has established processes and conducts routine pay equity reviews as part of the hiring process to ensure compliance with the 2017 Oregon Pay Equity Act.

Metro

Led by an elected council, this unique government gives all residents of greater Portland a voice in shaping the future and provides parks, venues, services, and tools at a regional scale. We find solutions for our area’s garbage and recycling that protect clean air and water; help plan land use and development to provide jobs and safe transportation; manage local venues that provide a connection to arts and culture and help keep the economy growing; protect 17,000 acres of parks and natural areas, and run the Oregon Zoo, to keep nature close to home.