Lead Aviation Forecaster

Cignus Consulting LLC. dba CIGNUS; New York (NY); On-site; USD 120,000 - 165,000; Full time

Job summary

Cignus Consulting is seeking a senior aviation forecaster to join the Strategic Analysis and Forecasting team as an embedded staff member for a major NYC airport operator. The role will cover JFK, LaGuardia, Newark, and Stewart, starting Nov 2026 for about four years.

You will lead quarterly passenger scenario updates, build fleet and cargo projections, and research industry trends to inform forecasting models and FAA-related analyses.

Qualifications

• 8+ years of aviation demand forecasting, airport planning, or airline network analysis experience.
• Hands-on econometric modeling in EViews or alternative tools (R/Stata/Python).
• Deep knowledge of DOT T-100, DB1B/OD, and Airline Data Inc. (or OAG/Cirium) schedule data.
• Strong SQL skills with Oracle or Microsoft SQL Server, plus Power BI or Tableau.
• Advanced Excel modeling.
• Track record presenting forecast results and assumptions to senior stakeholders.
• Bachelor's degree in economics, statistics, aviation, transportation planning, or a related field; graduate degree is a plus.

Responsibilities

• Lead quarterly updates of passenger scenarios for four airports, with monthly short-term and annual long-term forecasts.
• Build fleet forecasts by aircraft type and market to produce passenger, cargo, and general aviation forecasts.
• Develop annual cargo projections using econometric and time-series methods.
• Research airline strategies, fleet orders, airport developments, and post-pandemic travel trends as model inputs.
• Review FAA TAF, develop holiday forecasts, and review redevelopment forecasts.
• Author white papers, technical reports, and the Year in Review publication.
• Document methodologies and maintain assumption workbooks for load factor, capacity, and carrier fleets.

Skills

Aviation forecasting

Econometric modeling

DOT T-100 data

SQL

Power BI/Tableau

Advanced Excel

Stakeholder communication

Econometrics with Python/R

Education

Bachelor's degree in economics/statistics/aviation/transportation planning

Graduate degree (plus)

Tools

EViews

R

Stata

Python (statsmodels)

Oracle/MSSQL

Job description

Cignus Consulting is an SBA 8(a)-certified aviation technology and engineering firm supporting FAA, NASA, DoD, and major airport operators. We are seeking a senior aviation forecaster to join the Strategic Analysis and Forecasting team of a major New York City airport operator as an embedded extension of staff. The role covers forecasting across JFK, LaGuardia, Newark, and Stewart airports and is expected to start in November 2026 for a period of approximately four years.

What you'll do

• Lead quarterly updates of optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic passenger scenarios for all four airports, with monthly short-term forecasts (up to 2 years) and annual long-term forecasts (up to 20 years)
• Build fleet forecasts in 5-year intervals by aircraft type (commuter, narrowbody, widebody) and market (domestic and international), and use them to produce scheduled passenger, cargo, and general aviation operations forecasts
• Develop annual cargo volume projections using econometric and time-series methods
• Research airline strategies, fleet orders, airport developments, and post-pandemic travel trends as inputs to the forecasting models
• Review the FAA Terminal Area Forecast, develop holiday forecasts, and review redevelopment forecasts
• Author white papers, ad hoc analyses, technical reports, and the annual "Year in Review" publication
• Document methodologies and maintain detailed assumption workbooks for load factor, capacity, and carrier fleet by airport and region

What you bring

• 8+ years of aviation demand forecasting, airport planning, or airline network analysis experience
• Hands-on econometric modeling in EViews (or a comparable tool such as R, Stata, or Python statsmodels)
• Deep working knowledge of DOT T-100, DB1B/O&D, and Airline Data Inc. (or OAG/Cirium) schedule data
• Strong SQL skills with Oracle or Microsoft SQL Server, plus Power BI or Tableau
• Advanced Excel modeling
• A track record of presenting forecast results and assumptions to senior stakeholders
• Bachelor's degree in economics, statistics, aviation, transportation planning, or a related field. A graduate degree is a plus.

Nice to have

• Prior work on airport master plans, FAA TAF reconciliation, or revenue forecasting for an airport sponsor
• Familiarity with Aerobahn or other airside operations data

Work arrangement

Onsite at 4 World Trade Center a minimum of 2 days per week. Core hours are 9:00 AM to 5:00 PM Eastern, Monday through Friday, with occasional extended hours around deliverable deadlines.

This position is contingent upon contract award. Cignus Consulting is an Equal Opportunity Employer. All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity, national origin, disability, or veteran status.