Forecast Analyst

SmartRecruiters, Inc.; Long Grove, Northern (IL, KY); On-site; USD 80,000 - 90,000; Full time

Benefits offered by this job

Medical, dental, vision insurance

Paid time off

401k with company match

Career advancement program

Wellness programs

HSA and FSA

Life/AD&D

Job summary

MAT Holdings, Inc. is seeking a Forecast Analyst to build and maintain time series forecasting models, owning forecast accuracy and translating demand insights into inventory decisions.

You will work with Demand planning, Supply Chain, and customers, using SAP, Power BI, and AI tools such as Claude to deliver reliable forecasts and protect fill rates. The role requires knowledge of Holt-Winters, ARIMA, Croston, and ML approaches, plus experience with demand segmentation, feature engineering, and

Qualifications

• Time series forecasting methods including statistical and ML models.
• Familiarity with safety stock concepts and inventory planning.
• Experience with SAP, Power BI, and Excel for forecasting and reporting.

Responsibilities

• Develop, test, and deploy time series forecasting models for SKU, customer, and distribution levels.
• Monitor forecast accuracy KPIs and perform root cause analysis of misses and backorders.
• Collaborate with Operations and Supply Chain to translate forecasts into inventory and replenishment plans.
• Build and maintain safety stock models accounting for variability and service levels.
• Create automated dashboards and reports to support S&OP and stakeholder communications.

Skills

Time series forecasting

Safety stock planning

Forecast accuracy metrics

S&OP

SAP

Power BI

Excel

Python/R (modeling)

AI tools (Claude)

Communication & presentation

Education

Bachelor's degree in supply chain/engineering/statistics

Tools

SAP

Power BI

Excel

Python or R

Job description

Join our vertically integrated team at MAT Holdings, Inc., a leading global manufacturer with a 40-year history. We're proud to provide employment opportunities for more than 14,000 employees across 12 countries. Headquartered in Long Grove, Illinois, we have over 40 factories on three continents, including 2.1 million square feet of U.S. distribution and manufacturing space.

You will find our products in home improvement centers, big box retailers, hardware stores and automotive chains. They're in the cars you drive, the trailers you tow, and the heavy-duty machinery you operate.

MAT can maintain consistent expertise and solutions across the entire supply chain. We’re experts in engineering, manufacturing, quality assurance, logistics and distribution, marketing, design, and customer service — we don't just make it happen, we ensure it happens with excellence.

We’re more than manufacturing, we’re MAT.

• MAT Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries offer a complete benefits package that includes medical, dental, vision, and disability insurance after 60 days of employment.
• Paid Time Off (PTO), including paid vacation, sick days, and paid holidays.
• 401k Retirement Plan + Company Match.
• Career Advancement Program, training and development.
• Wellness Programs, including fitness reimbursements and mental health support.
• Health Savings Account (HSA) and Flexible Spending Accounts (FSA).
• Voluntary Life / AD&D, Employer Provided Life/AD&D and More...

Job Description

The Forecast Analyst builds and maintains time series forecasting models, owns forecast accuracy, and translates demand insights into inventory and safety stock decisions. Working with Demand planning, Supply Chain, and customers, the role combines statistical modeling, SAP and Power BI analytics, and AI tools such as Claude to deliver reliable forecasts, protect fill rates, and communicate clearly with stakeholders.

Forecast Modeling

• Develop, test, and deploy time series forecasting models (e.g., Holt-Winter’s, ARIMA, Croston, and machine learning approaches) to predict demand at SKU, customer, and distribution center levels.
• Research and prototype new forecasting methods, including demand segmentation and model-routing frameworks that match each SKU's demand pattern to the best-fit model.
• Perform feature engineering and incorporate external drivers such as promotions, seasonality, POS trends, and new product introductions into forecast models.
• Validate model performance through back testing and holdout analysis before production rollout.

Forecast Accuracy & Performance Management

• Own and monitor forecast accuracy KPIs, including MAPE, WMAPE, bias, and forecast value add (FVA), and report on them regularly.
• Conduct root cause analysis on forecast misses, backorders, and fill rate gaps, and implement corrective actions.
• Maintain forecast hygiene by cleansing demand history, handling outliers, and adjusting for supply-constrained periods.
• Continuously improve forecasting processes and reduce manual overrides through better statistical baselines.

Operations & Supply Chain Collaboration

• Work closely with Operations and Supply Chain teams to translate demand forecasts into inventory, replenishment, and safety stock requirements.
• Support S&OP by preparing demand plans, highlighting risks and opportunities, and driving consensus across functions.
• Build and maintain safety stock models that account for demand variability, lead time variability, and target service levels.
• Analyze lead time variability, inventory positions, and service levels to support fill rate and inventory targets.
• Collaborate with key customer accounts to review POS data, order trends, and forecast alignment, and recommend forecast changes.
• Communicate forecast assumptions, changes, and risks clearly to Sales, Marketing, Finance, and Operations.
• Gather market intelligence from Sales and Marketing to enrich forecasts with qualitative inputs.

Data, Tools & Reporting

• Extract and manage demand and inventory data from ERP systems (SAP) and build automated reporting and dashboards in Power BI and Excel.
• Build repeatable analytical workflows that reduce manual effort and improve data reliability.
• Document forecasting methodologies, model logic, and processes for transparency and knowledge sharing.

AI & Automation

• Use AI tools such as Claude to accelerate analysis, code development, data exploration, and documentation.
• Write effective prompts to generate forecasting scripts, summarize account trends, draft stakeholder communications, and validate analytical logic.
• Identify opportunities to integrate AI into forecasting and reporting workflows to improve speed and consistency, while reviewing all outputs for accuracy.

Qualifications

Required Knowledge & Skills

• Time series forecasting methods, including statistical, and machine learning models.
• Safety stock and inventory planning concepts, including service level targets, demand and lead time variability, reorder points, and fill rate drivers.
• Forecast accuracy metrics (MAPE, WMAPE, bias, FVA) and root cause analysis techniques.
• S&OP processes and cross-functional demand planning.
• SAP ERP, Power BI, and advanced Excel; Python or R for modeling is a plus.
• Working knowledge of AI assistants such as Claude and prompt engineering for analytics and business communication.
• Strong communication and presentation skills for customer-facing and executive audiences.

Education/Experience

• Undergraduate degree in supply chain, engineering, statistics, Analytics or a related field.
• 1-2 years of supply chain planning experience in forecasting, S&OP, demand, and supply planning.

The posted salary range for this position is $80,000 to $90,0000 annually. Final compensation will be determined based on the candidate’s skills, experience, and qualifications.

Additional Information

All your information will be kept confidential according to EEO guidelines.