Trader – Global Prediction Markets

Apcapitalinvestment; Hong Kong; On-site; HKD 90,000 - 150,000; Full time

Job summary

Apcapitalinvestment in Hong Kong is seeking a Proprietary Trader to build a new trading desk focusing on geopolitical and macro event-driven markets. The role offers full ownership and autonomy in shaping the desk's strategy and deploying capital.

The ideal candidate will have over 3 years of experience in prediction markets and a proven ability to generate independent PnL. You will monitor news, manage risk, and trade across various prediction platforms.

Qualifications

• 3+ years experience in prediction markets or political betting.
• Proven, independently generated PnL from your own views.
• Strong understanding of odds and probability pricing.

Responsibilities

• Trade geopolitical and macro event markets across platforms.
• Generate PnL through in-house strategies.
• Identify mispricings and arbitrage opportunities.

Skills

Prediction markets

Political/geopolitical betting

Event-driven prop trading

Risk management

Odds/probability pricing

Coding (Python/SQL)

Job description

Proprietary Trader – Global Prediction Markets

February 27, 2026

Location: Hong Kong / London

Workplace: Office

Position Overview

We are a hedge fund building a new trading desk around geopolitical and macro event-driven markets e.g. elections, sanctions, conflicts, policy shifts, central bank decisions traded through prediction exchanges, event contract platforms, and betting markets. Our edge is in events where information is fragmented, outcomes are binary, and the market consistently underprices tail scenarios.

This is a build-from-scratch opportunity with full ownership. You will shape the desk's strategy, deploy capital behind your own views, and run your book with real autonomy.

Strong preference for candidates from prediction exchanges, event-driven prop trading, political betting, or macro-focused sportsbook backgrounds.

Key Responsibilities

• Trade geopolitical, political, and macro event markets across prediction platforms (e.g. Polymarket, Kalshi) and related venues
• Generate PnL through in-house strategies — fully independent, not client flow-driven
• Identify mispricings and arbitrage opportunities across platforms
• Price and trade probability-based contracts (binary / multi-outcome)
• Manage risk, exposure, and capital allocation
• Monitor news, sentiment, and market movements in real time
• Help build the desk’s trading framework, tools, and processes

Qualifications

• 3+ years experience in prediction markets, political/geopolitical betting, event-driven prop trading etc
• Proven, independently generated PnL from your own views
• Strong understanding of odds / probability pricing
• Disciplined risk management
• Coding (Python/SQL) is a plus
• Motivated to build and scale a new trading desk
• Flexibility to align with global event calendars