Prediction Markets Quant Trader

Gravity Team Ltd; Greater London; Hybrid; GBP 120,000 - 190,000; Full time

Benefits offered by this job

Profit sharing

Learning budget

Free meals

Wellness programs

Transport allowance

Job summary

Gravity Team Ltd is a quantitative proprietary trading firm seeking a high-performance Prediction Markets Quant Trader to own the vertical across event contracts and forecasting. The role focuses on building and iterating high-frequency strategies for Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, and other venues with global reach.

You will develop predictive models, manage arbitrage and market-making across 30+ exchanges, and optimize execution with shoulders on risk controls and edge extraction in evolving

Qualifications

• 5+ years in high-frequency or proprietary trading (crypto, prediction markets, sports betting, or traditional finance).
• Hands-on experience trading binary/categorical outcome contracts, options, or other probability-based instruments.
• Advanced proficiency in Python, applied statistics, and predictive/probabilistic modeling (e.g., calibration, Bayesian updating).
• Familiarity with Rust is a valuable advantage.
• Knowledge of event market structure, resolution mechanics, and price discovery across contracts.

Responsibilities

• Develop and iterate high-frequency and systematic trading strategies for prediction/event markets.
• Build and optimize predictive models and signals for pricing, execution, hedging, and post-trade analysis of event contracts.
• Execute and manage arbitrage trades across prediction market venues and related instruments.
• Own the prediction markets trading pipeline—from probability tracking to market making logic and deployment.
• Collaborate on improving cross-venue hedging and settlement logic across platforms.
• Analyze market microstructure, order book dynamics, and execution performance to improve Sharpe and reduce slippage.
• Help evolve asset allocation across 30+ exchanges and venues.
• Stay ahead of resolution criteria and rule nuances to identify mispricings and edges.

Skills

High-frequency trading

Proprietary trading

Python

Statistical modeling

Tools

Rust

Job description

At Gravity Team, a quantitative proprietary trading firm, we are on a mission to balance supply and demand across crypto and event-driven markets around the world.

We're looking for a high-performance Prediction Markets Quant Trader with deep experience in event contracts, forecasting, or HFT, someone who's ready to own their vertical and make an immediate PnL impact across platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, and other emerging event-market venues.

Your Main Responsibilities

• Develop and iterate high-frequency and systematic trading strategies for prediction/event markets (Kalshi, Polymarket, and similar platforms), with a focus on politics, macro, crypto, and sports-adjacent contracts.

• Build and optimize predictive models and signals for pricing, execution, hedging, and post-trade analysis of binary and categorical event contracts.

• Execute and manage arbitrage trades across prediction market venues and against correlated instruments (spot, futures, options), through to settlement — coordinating collateral/balances, internal transfers, withdrawals/deposits, and post-trade reconciliation to minimize fails.

• Own the prediction markets trading pipeline — from probability/odds tracking, market making logic, to monitoring and deployment.

• Collaborate on improving cross-venue hedging, correlated-market flows (e.g., crypto, macro, sports odds), and settlement logic across regulated and offshore platforms.

• Analyze market microstructure, order book dynamics, and execution performance to improve Sharpe and reduce slippage on thinly-traded or event-driven contracts.

• Help evolve our asset allocation logic — we actively manage assets and exposure across 30+ exchanges and prediction market venues daily.

• Stay ahead of resolution criteria, event calendars, and rule nuances across platforms to identify mispricings and structural edges.

What We Expect

• 5+ years of experience in high-frequency or proprietary trading (crypto, prediction markets, sports betting, or traditional finance).

• Prior work with prediction/event markets (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, sportsbooks, or similar), or a low-latency trading/execution system.

• Hands‑on experience trading binary/categorical outcome contracts, options, or other probability-based instruments.

• Knowledge of event market structure, resolution mechanics, and price discovery across political, macro, crypto, and sports‑linked contracts.

• Solid experience in hedging logic, managing collateral/settlement flows, or optimizing asset rebalancing across multiple venues.

• Deep understanding of market microstructure and how to design systems that extract edge from thin liquidity and event‑driven order flow.

• Strong ability to analyze PnL, post‑trade statistics, and fine‑tune strategies to optimize Sharpe ratio, turnover, and drawdowns.

• Advanced proficiency in Python, applied statistics, and predictive/probabilistic modeling (e.g., calibration, Bayesian updating).

• Familiarity with Rust is a valuable advantage.

• Able to design and maintain robust trading infrastructure, including real‑time monitoring, execution diagnostics, dynamic parameter tuning, and automated risk controls.

Our Promise To You

We offer you hands‑on insight into one of the most exciting and fastest‑growing corners of finance today. Our work contributes to transforming how markets price real‑world uncertainty and democratizing access to forecasting and event markets across the world.

Conditions

• Extremely open idea meritocracy and close to zero bureaucracy.

• Fast‑moving, challenging, and unique business problems.

• Working together with a highly talented team.

• Profit shares directly linked to your performance and market results — the upside is unlimited.

• Learning & Development budget.

• Benefits you can combine yourself — free food, Bolt taxi, sports, spa & wellness, etc.

• Opportunity to participate in global crypto and prediction‑market events, making a direct and tangible impact on how these markets evolve.

• Flexible working hours, casual work attire, and startup atmosphere.