Climate Tipping Point Modeller

UK CENTER FOR ECOLOGY & HYDROLOGY; Wallingford; On-site; GBP 41,000 - 43,000; Full time

Benefits offered by this job

Generous annual leave

Pension contribution

Hybrid working options

Wellbeing benefits

Employee Assistance Programme

Job summary

UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology in Wallingford seeks a Research Scientist with strong mathematical and statistical expertise to advance Early Warning Systems for climate tipping points. You will develop nonlinear dynamical models, calibrate them with observations, and compare against state-of-the-art Earth System Models while translating model behavior to real-world implications.

You will collaborate with partners such as universities and space agencies, contribute to funding proposals, and

Qualifications

• PhD in a mathematical/physical science with strong quantitative skills.
• Experience applying advanced statistical methods to climate or environmental data.

Responsibilities

• Develop reduced-complexity dynamical systems that emulate climate components.
• Incorporate background variability into these systems to represent high-frequency fluctuations.
• Evaluate dynamical systems and Earth System Models against real-world observations, quantifying uncertainty.
• Assess differences between ESM projections of tipping points and integrate this uncertainty into EWS calibration.
• Design and deliver blind tests to evaluate predictive power of early warning approaches in climate models.
• Manage tasks across project workstreams to ensure timely delivery.
• Contribute to funding proposals to support continued research.

Skills

Python

Linux

Numerical modeling

Statistics

Education

PhD in mathematics or physics

Job description

Salary - £40,574 to £43,056

Hybrid working (50/50)

Permanent

Closing date: 02 September 2026. We reserve the right to close this advert early if we find the right candidate, so we encourage you to apply early.

About UKCEH

UKCEH is a leading independent research institute with over 600 scientists studying how the natural world works. We take a connected approach across land, water and air to understand environmental systems and build resilience for people and the planet.

We’re seeking a passionate and highly driven Research Scientist with strong mathematical and statistical expertise to help advance Early Warning Systems (EWS) for climate tipping points. Based within our globally recognised team in Wallingford, this role places you at the forefront of one of the most critical challenges of our time, detecting when Earth’s systems approach potentially irreversible change. Your work will directly contribute to strengthening our ability to anticipate and respond to climate risks, informing decisions at the highest levels and helping safeguard our planet’s future.

In this role, you will push the boundaries of climate science by developing and applying nonlinear dynamical systems models to understand the behaviour of key Earth system components. You’ll calibrate these models against real-world climate observations and evaluate them alongside state-of-the-art Earth System Models, while also translating abstract model behaviour into real-world meaning – linking critical thresholds in your models to human-driven climate forcing such as rising greenhouse gas concentrations. At the heart of your work lies a profound challenge: using these dynamical systems models in tandem with statistics to reduce uncertainty and build more accurate Early Warning Systems. Such systems will help the world better anticipate when tipping points may be crossed despite the inherent variability and complexity of the climate system.

In this role, you won’t just contribute to research, you’ll be immersed in a fast-moving, high-profile programme at the forefront of climate science. You’ll collaborate with prestigious partners including the Universities of Exeter and Leicester, the Met Office, the European Space Agency and the Advanced Research and Invention Agency, bringing together diverse expertise to tackle one of the most complex challenges in environmental science.

Your work will span dynamic, high-impact projects, from assessing the resilience of rainforests and dryland ecosystems to exploring shifts in ocean circulation through the ESA-funded PREDICT and ARIA-funded Forecasting Tipping Points programmes. Along the way, you’ll work alongside internationally recognised experts and prolific researchers, gaining exposure to cutting-edge approaches, rich Earth Observation datasets, climate models and a breadth of ideas rarely found in traditional research roles.

You’ll also have the opportunity to contribute to the future direction of the programme, including supporting the development of funding proposals and shaping new research ideas. It’s a unique opportunity to be part of something ambitious, collaborative and truly influential – shaping science that matters right now.

Your main responsibilities will include:

• Developing reduced-complexity dynamical systems that emulate large-scale components of the climate system.
• Incorporating background variability (“noise”) into these systems to represent high-frequency climate fluctuations and explore how these signals can enhance the accuracy of existing or proposed EWSs.
• Evaluating both dynamical systems and full Earth System Models (ESMs) against real-world observations, including multisensor and multiphysics Earth Observation datasets, while rigorously quantifying uncertainty.
• Assessing differences between ESM projections of future tipping points and integrating this extra uncertainty into the calibration and improvement of EWSs.
• Designing and delivering “blind tests” to evaluate the predictive power of novel early warning approaches within climate models.
• Managing tasks across project workstreams to ensure timely and high-quality delivery.
• Contributing to the development of funding proposals to support the continuation and growth of this important research area.

The overarching aim of this role is to develop accurate and reliable Early Warning Systems for climate tipping points. These systems must strike a careful balance – delivering the smallest possible uncertainty bounds while transparently accounting for the inherent variability and complexity of the climate system. In doing so, you will build a distinctive and impactful research profile, contributing to a strong portfolio of outputs including peer-reviewed publications, stakeholder reports, and the release of datasets and models. You will also share your insights with the wider community through presentations at conferences and workshops.

A key aspect of the role will involve developing a deep understanding of the priorities and expectations of major funders, including the European Space Agency (ESA) and the Advanced Research and Invention Agency (ARIA), ensuring your work remains aligned with high-impact, strategically important research. Project links below:

ESA: https://climate.esa.int/en/tipping-points-research/predict-predicting-resilience-and-early-detection-of-impending-climate-transitions/

ARIA: https://aria.org.uk/opportunity-spaces/scoping-our-planet/forecasting-tipping-points

What we’re looking for:

• A PhD in mathematics, physics, or a closely-related scientific discipline
• A genuine passion for environmental and climate science
• Excellent programming skills in a high-level language (e.g. Python), with experience working in Linux environments and running numerical models
• Can demonstrate experience applying advanced statistical methods to data from observations and/or models
• Proven ability to communicate research activities and outcomes effectively to both technical and non-technical audiences
• A confident communicator, with the ability to build strong relationships and clearly convey complex technical concepts

Working at UKCEH is genuinely rewarding

You’ll be joining a leading independent, not-for-profit research institute, where your work will have real impact. Our science helps people and the environment to prosper and informs decisions that benefit society as a whole.

We’re proud to be custodians of over 60 years of environmental data, and just as proud of the people behind it. You’ll be supported to develop your career, grow your skills and thrive in a collaborative, purpose-driven environment.

What we offer

• Generous annual leave – 27 days (rising to 29 days after 5 years) +3 for Christmas closure
• 10% employer pension contribution
• Financial protection through life assurance and income protection
• Enhanced family-friendly policies
• Flexible and hybrid working options (depending on your role)
• Lifestyle perks including dental, gym, retail and cycling discounts
• A commitment to wellbeing, supported by a range of internal initiatives
• Employee Assistance Programme and health benefits, including 24/7 support with remote GP access, mental health, physiotherapy and lifestyle services
• Peer recognition and rewards that celebrate your contribution
• Salary sacrifice agreement benefits including Electric & Plug-in Hybrid vehicle and Cycle2Work schemes
• Interest-free annual travel season ticket loans (terms apply)

Our Commitment to inclusion

At UKCEH, we believe everyone should feel welcome and able to be themselves at work. We warmly encourage applications from people of all backgrounds, experiences and identities. As a Disability Confident employer, we’re happy to support you with any adjustments you may need throughout the recruitment process.

A note on sponsorship

Please note: Unfortunately, we are unable to offer visa sponsorship for this role and this does not qualify for endorsement to support a Global Talent Visa application. If you are considering pursuing self-sponsorship, please indicate this in your application so we can take it into account during the recruitment process.