Senior Manager, Risk & Fraud Analytics

Trustly, Inc.; San Francisco (CA); Hybrid; USD 150,000 - 210,000; Full time

Benefits offered by this job

Flexible PTO

Comprehensive health insurance

FSA/HSA plans

Home office setup allowance

Internet stipend

401k match

Parental leave

Job summary

Trustly, Inc. is seeking a senior leader to orchestrate risk and fraud analytics across loss reporting, forecasting, and recovery strategies.

You will quantify losses, monitor patterns, and guide the organization through data-driven decisions to optimize risk and performance. The role requires 8+ years in payments risk, strong leadership, and expertise in loss forecasting, with hybrid work from US SF or NY hubs.

Qualifications

• 8+ years in payments, lending or banking risk and fraud analytics
• Experience managing analysts
• Strong analytical judgment and data-driven insights

Responsibilities

• Lead risk and fraud analytics team across loss reporting, investigations, recovery analysis and loss forecasting.
• Attribute loss to return code family, merchant, vertical, rail and guarantee tier, and to the rule or score band behind the transaction.
• Produce the monthly loss report and the merchant loss scorecards for the risk management and commercial teams.
• Quantify the loss avoided and the approval rate cost of each proposed rule, threshold or non-standard deal term before it is implemented, and report the outcome against that forecast once it is live.
• In partnership with risk operations, investigate loss patterns across unauthorized, administrative and funding-related returns, quantify the exposure, and share findings with Risk Data Science and the Risk Leads.
• Forecast portfolio loss against plan, and explain the variance by merchant, user segment, vertical, rail and guarantee tier mix.
• Forecast which merchants and segments are moving toward a return rate limit, explain the drivers, and support the risk compliance team in the response to our banking partners.
• Set the recovery strategy: which returns are worth contesting, and the expected recovery by return code family and merchant.
• Give an independent, data-based view of merchant and segment performance, including how approved merchant cohorts performed against what the underwriting criteria predicted.
• Maintain expected loss rates and cost per decision by merchant, vertical and guarantee tier, and present loss performance and forecast variance to the Risk Committee and Finance.

Skills

Payments risk analytics

Team management

Analytical judgment

Fraud investigation

Cohort analysis

Pattern detection

Loss forecasting

Education

Bachelor's degree in a quantitative field

Master's degree or MBA (preferred)

Tools

Python

Job description

WHO WE ARE

At Trustly, we're building a smarter, faster, and more secure financial future by revolutionizing the world of payments. As a global leader in Open Banking Payments, we are establishing Pay by Bank as the new standard at checkout, providing unparalleled freedom, speed, and ease to millions of consumers and merchants worldwide.

Our Ambition: To build the world’s most disruptive payment network and redefine what the payment experience should feel like.

Trustly is a global team of innovators, collaborators, and doers. If you are driven by a strong sense of purpose and thrive in a dynamic, entrepreneurial, and high-growth environment, join us and be part of a team that’s transforming the way the world pays.

About the team

Risk & Fraud Analytics sits in Trustly's Portfolio Risk Management organization, alongside Risk Management and Risk Solutions. The team quantifies the business impact of risk decisions and is responsible for attributing every dollar of loss and investigating the fraud patterns. In addition, this team provides loss forecasts and quantifies a loss and approval number on a proposed rule or threshold change.

ABOUT THE ROLE

You will lead the team behind loss attribution, loss pattern discovery across all return types, return rate monitoring, recovery strategy, loss forecasting and merchant collateral sizing. You will produce the monthly loss view and the forecasted loss and approval impact on every proposed rule, threshold and non-standard deal term.

WHAT YOU'LL DO

• Lead the risk and fraud analytics team across loss reporting, investigations, recovery analysis and loss forecasting.
• Attribute loss to return code family, merchant, vertical, rail and guarantee tier, and to the rule or score band that allowed the transaction.
• Produce the monthly loss report and the merchant loss scorecards for the risk management and commercial teams.
• Quantify the loss avoided and the approval rate cost of each proposed rule, threshold or non-standard deal term before it is implemented, and report the outcome against that forecast once it is live.
• In partnership with risk operations, investigate loss patterns across unauthorized, administrative and funding-related returns, quantify the exposure, and share the findings with Risk Data Science and the Risk Leads.
• Forecast portfolio loss against plan, and explain the variance by merchant, user segment, vertical, rail and guarantee tier mix.
• Forecast which merchants and segments are moving toward a return rate limit, explain the drivers, and support the risk compliance team in the response to our banking partners.
• Set the recovery strategy: which returns are worth contesting, and the expected recovery by return code family and merchant.
• Give an independent, data-based view of merchant and segment performance, including how approved merchant cohorts performed against what the underwriting criteria predicted.
• Maintain expected loss rates and cost per decision by merchant, vertical and guarantee tier, and present loss performance and forecast variance to the Risk Committee and Finance.

WHAT WE'RE LOOKING FOR

• 8+ years in payments, lending or banking risk and fraud analytics, including at least 3 years managing analysts.
• Exceptional analytical judgment to help frame the right question, identify the right data and create analysis design to find answers.
• Fraud investigation experience, and the ability to guide analysts through one: set the hypothesis, find the pattern across a group of cases, and hold the evidence to a standard.
• Fluency with the methods this work runs on: segmentation, cohort analysis and pattern detection across large transaction datasets.
• Loss forecasting experience with cohort loss emergence, vintage curves or roll rates, and explaining variance to plan.
• Experience owning a loss number that Finance and commercial teams both work from, including the monthly reporting cycle behind it.
• Depth in ACH or card loss economics, including return code families and recovery rates.
• Experience quantifying a rule or threshold change before its implementation and reporting the outcome afterward.
• Ability to bring a recommendation to a risk committee and explain the assumptions behind it.

PREFERRED

• Degree in a quantitative field. A master's degree or MBA is a plus.
• Experience with guaranteed payments, credit or any product where the provider carries the loss.
• Exposure to fraud typologies such as first party misuse, account takeover and synthetic identity.
• Experience with gaming, telco, utilities, insurance or financial services portfolios.
• Python for analysis and modeling.
• Familiarity with NACHA rules for ACH and Payments Canada rules for EFT.

LOCATION & WORKPLACE

This is a hybrid role based out of our San Francisco or New York hubs. We look for team members to be in the office Tuesday through Thursday.

SALARY RANGES IN US-BASED ROLE POSTING

Our salary ranges are determined by role, level, and location. The range displayed on each job posting reflects the minimum and maximum target for new hire salaries for the position across all US locations. Within the range, individual pay is determined by work location and additional factors, including job-related skills, experience, and relevant education or training. Recruiters can share more information with applicants about the specific salary range for preferred locations during the hiring process. Please note that the compensation details listed in US role postings reflect the base salary only, and do not include other perks and benefits.

WHAT WE OFFER

We offer innovative perks and benefits packages that include:

• - Flexible paid time off & generous PTO accrual plans
• - Comprehensive medical, dental, vision, and other insurances
• - FSA & HSA plans for medical and dependent care
• - Home office set-up allowance
• - Internet stipend
• - Retirement plan match for 401k and RRSP
• - Gender-neutral paid parental leave, and more!

(The benefits and total compensation packages outlined above are for full-time employees; some exclusions apply for temporary positions.)

At Trustly, we embrace and celebrate diversity of all forms and the value it brings to our employees and customers. We are proud and committed to being an Equal Opportunity Employer and believe an open and inclusive environment enables people to do their best work. All decisions regarding hiring, advancement, and any other aspects of employment are made solely on the basis of qualifications, merit, and business need.