Senior Manager, Portfolio Analytics & Forecasting

Flagship Financial Group; Tempe (AZ); Hybrid; USD 140,000 - 200,000; Full time

Job summary

Flagship Financial Group seeks a Senior Manager, Portfolio Analytics & Forecasting to lead portfolio loss forecasting and analytics, shaping risk and performance insights for senior leadership. You will own forecasting processes, develop models, and partner with Risk, Finance, Servicing, and Treasury to drive data-driven decisions.

The role requires 8+ years in risk/portfolio analytics, strong SQL and BI tool experience, and a proven ability to translate complex data into actionable

Qualifications

• 8+ years of experience in risk analytics or portfolio analytics or loss forecasting.
• Experience building or improving forecasting models.
• Experience with large-scale data warehouses.
• Experience creating executive dashboards and KPIs.
• Consumer auto finance experience is strongly preferred.
• Experience with macroeconomic analysis or CECL is a plus.
• Experience supporting servicing analytics or portfolio optimization is preferred.

Responsibilities

• Lead development, maintenance, and enhancement of portfolio loss forecasting models (delinquency, default, loss frequency, severity, recovery).
• Own the monthly loss forecasting process, including forecast generation, variance analysis, reporting, and partner communication.
• Monitor portfolio performance across vintages, segments, pools, and risk tiers for trends and opportunities.
• Establish and maintain key portfolio metrics (delinquency, roll rates, charge-offs, recoveries, prepayment).
• Deliver concise reporting and dashboards with actionable insights for leaders.
• Quality control forecasts and analyses, validate data, stress-test assumptions, investigate anomalies.
• Partner with Finance, Treasury, Accounting, Risk, and Servicing to support planning and reporting.
• Utilize SQL and analytics tools to extract, transform, and analyze large datasets.
• Incorporate macroeconomic trends and scenarios into assessments and forecasts.
• Support servicing analytics initiatives to improve outcomes and profitability.
• Document methodologies and governance, support audit and validation.
• Lead complex analytics projects and mentor analysts and cross-functional partners.

Skills

SQL

Python

R

Power BI

Tableau

Looker

Forecasting

Data visualization

Communication

Excel

Education

Bachelor's degree

Tools

Data warehouse platforms

Excel

Job description

At Flagship Financial Group, we strive to make a positive impact on our customers' lives through responsible auto financing and on our employees' careers through continuous learning and advancement opportunities. Following our recent acquisition and the appointment of a new CEO, we are entering an exciting period of transformation, shifting toward a high-growth, data-driven, and operationally excellent future.

We are seeking a Senior Manager, Portfolio Analytics & Forecasting, to lead portfolio performance analytics and loss forecasting efforts that help shape Flagship's view of portfolio risk and business performance. Reporting to the VP, Performance and Servicing Analytics, this role partners closely with Risk, Finance, Servicing, Treasury, and executive leadership to transform portfolio data into actionable insights, reliable forecasts, and strategic recommendations. This position plays a critical role in helping the organization identify emerging risks, evaluate opportunities, and make informed business decisions as we continue to grow and evolve.

What You'll Do

• Lead the development, maintenance, and enhancement of portfolio loss forecasting models, including delinquency, default, loss frequency, loss severity, and recovery forecasts.
• Own the monthly loss forecasting process, including forecast generation, variance analysis, reporting, and business partner communication.
• Monitor portfolio performance across vintages, credit segments, securitization pools, and risk tiers to identify meaningful trends, opportunities, and emerging risks.
• Establish and maintain key portfolio performance metrics, including delinquency, roll rates, charge-offs, recoveries, and prepayment behavior.
• Deliver clear, concise reporting and dashboards that provide actionable insights to business leaders and executive stakeholders.
• Conduct rigorous quality control of forecasts, analyses, and reporting outputs by validating data, stress-testing assumptions, and investigating anomalies.
• Partner with Finance, Treasury, Accounting, Risk, and Servicing teams to support planning, valuation, financial reporting, and strategic decision-making.
• Utilize SQL and modern analytics tools to extract, transform, and analyze large and complex datasets.
• Incorporate macroeconomic trends, stress-testing scenarios, and qualitative factors into portfolio performance assessments and forecasts.
• Support servicing analytics initiatives that improve customer outcomes, operational performance, and portfolio profitability.
• Document forecasting methodologies, assumptions, and procedures to support governance, audit, and model validation activities.
• Lead complex analytical projects independently while providing technical guidance and mentorship to analysts and cross-functional partners.

Who You Are

The Strategic Analyst

You excel at translating large volumes of data into meaningful business insights and recommendations that influence strategic decisions.

The Quality Champion

You possess exceptional attention to detail and instinctively validate results, challenge assumptions, and ensure accuracy before information reaches stakeholders.

The Business Problem Solver

You can navigate ambiguity, identify root causes, and focus on the factors that truly drive business outcomes.

The Trusted Partner

You communicate complex analytical concepts clearly and effectively, enabling leaders across the organization to make informed decisions with confidence.

The Continuous Learner

You embrace modern analytics tools and emerging technologies, applying sound judgment to maximize their effectiveness while maintaining high standards of quality and rigor.

Qualifications

Experience

• 8+ years of experience in risk analytics, portfolio analytics, loss forecasting, quantitative analysis, or related functions within consumer finance or financial services.
• Demonstrated success leading complex analytical initiatives and translating quantitative findings into business recommendations.
• Experience building, maintaining, or enhancing forecasting, portfolio performance, or predictive models.
• Strong experience working with large-scale data warehouse environments and analytical datasets.
• Experience creating executive-level reporting, dashboards, KPIs, and business performance metrics.
• Consumer auto finance experience is strongly preferred.
• Experience with macroeconomic analysis, stress testing, CECL, loan valuation, or allowance methodologies is a plus.
• Experience supporting servicing analytics or portfolio optimization initiatives is preferred.

Education

• Bachelor's degree required in Mathematics, Statistics, Finance, Economics, Engineering, Actuarial Science, Data Science, or a related quantitative field.

Skills & Abilities

• Advanced analytical and quantitative problem-solving capabilities.
• Strong SQL proficiency required; experience with Python or R is preferred.
• Hands-on experience with Power BI, Tableau, Looker, or similar business intelligence platforms.
• Strong understanding of forecasting methodologies, portfolio analytics, and performance measurement.
• Ability to synthesize complex information and communicate findings to both technical and non-technical audiences.
• Excellent organizational skills with the ability to manage multiple priorities in a fast-paced environment.
• Strong business acumen and sound judgment in evaluating analytical results and recommendations.
• Advanced Microsoft Excel skills with proficiency across the Microsoft 365 suite.
• Demonstrated professionalism, integrity, and accountability.

Remote or hybrid opportunity at our Glen Mills, PA, Tempe, AZ, or Coppell, TX locations.

Why Join Us?

This is an opportunity to help shape the future of a growing organization through data-driven decision making and advanced portfolio analytics. You'll work closely with senior leaders across Risk, Finance, and Servicing, lead high-visibility analytical initiatives, and play a key role in helping Flagship optimize portfolio performance, manage risk, and support continued growth. You'll have the opportunity to deepen your expertise in forecasting, analytics, and consumer finance while making a measurable impact on the business.