Senior Forecasting and FP&A Analyst

Pair of Thieves; Los Angeles (CA); On-site; USD 110,000 - 140,000; Full time

Job summary

Pair of Thieves in Los Angeles seeks a Senior Analyst to own Forecasting and FP&A support, reporting to the Senior Manager of Forecasting. This hands-on role focuses on weekly retail ladder planning, wholesale forecasting, and the DTC forecast for Amazon and the brand site, with attention to TACoS and promotional calendars.

The ideal candidate has 5+ years in wholesale/merchandise planning, strong Excel skills, and a track record of translating complex data into concise, actionable

Qualifications

• 5+ years of experience in wholesale retail planning, forecasting, merchandise planning or a related field.
• Hands-on experience building retail ladder plans for major retailers (e.g., Walmart, Target).
• Strong understanding of retail planning including POS, inventory, weeks of supply, shrink, markdowns and open to buy.
• Advanced Excel skills and comfort with large, complex data sets.
• Strong analytical ability to turn data into actionable insights and recommendations.
• Financial fluency: understanding how forecast changes affect revenue and gross profit.
• Experience using AI tools such as Claude for ladder plans and scenario analyses is preferred.
• Technical curiosity and a bias for process improvement.

Responsibilities

• Build and maintain SKU-level retail ladder plans (POS, receipts and inventory by week).
• Convert ladder plans into monthly shipping forecasts and justify variances.
• Review inventory goals and drive receipt and shipment plans with retailers.
• Plan for shrink, markdowns, clearance, and open-to-buy against goals.
• Coordinate Direct Import and Domestic shipments with retailer windows and lead times.
• Reconcile bottoms-up plans with retailer plans and explain gaps.
• Provide monthly forecasts and explain changes, risks, and opportunities.
• Analyze forecast versus actual performance and investigate root causes.
• Partner with Sales, Demand Planning, Production and Finance to align forecasts with actions.

Skills

Wholesale planning

Forecasting

Retail ladder plans

Excel

Analytical skills

FP&A

Claude AI tools

Tools

Claude

Job description

At Pair of Thieves, we make basics that aren't basic. We create underwear, socks, tees, loungewear, and essentials that combine innovative fabrics, thoughtful design, and a healthy dose of personality. You'll find us at Target, Walmart, Amazon, and on our own site, reaching millions of customers every year.

The Role

We are seeking an experienced and highly analytical Senior Analyst to manage Forecasting and support FP&A functions. Reporting to the Senior Manager of Forecasting, with a dotted line to the Director of FP&A, this individual contributor role works closely with Sales, Demand Planning, Production and Finance. The work splits roughly 70% forecasting and 30% FP&A.

Your primary focus is building and maintaining weekly retail ladder plans for major wholesale accounts and converting them into the shipping plan while understanding risks and opportunities. You'll also own the DTC forecast for Amazon and our own site, which calls for a general understanding of marketing spend (TACoS), promotional calendars and the P&L.

This is a hands-on position for someone who knows wholesale retail planning inside and out and can connect the dots between POS, retail inventory, retailer goals, shipments and financial impact. The ideal candidate has strong scenario modeling skills, an innate curiosity for how the business operates and the ability to translate complex information into concise recommendations.

What You'll Do

Forecasting and Retail Planning (70%)

• Build and maintain SKU-level retail ladder plans (POS, receipts and retail inventory by week) that roll up into monthly shipping forecasts.
• Review POS, retail inventory and retailer inventory goals to drive receipt and shipment plans.
• Factor in door counts, planograms, sets and resets, newness and dropped items.
• Plan for shrink, markdowns and clearance, and manage open to buy against retailer inventory goals.
• Plan Direct Import and Domestic shipments, including retailer commitment windows and longer lead times.
• Reconcile bottoms-up SKU plans against retailer plans and explain the gap.
• Provide the monthly forecast for your accounts and explain forecast to plan, month-over-month changes, and risks and opportunities.
• Analyze forecast versus actual performance and dig into the why behind meaningful changes.
• Partner with Sales, Demand Planning, Production and Finance so the forecast reflects what each account will actually do.

FP&A (30%)

• Support the annual budget, periodic forecasts and long-range planning (LRP) with account-level revenue and gross margin inputs.
• Prepare budget-to-actual and forecast-to-actual variance analysis for your accounts and explain the primary drivers of performance.
• Build and maintain gross profit assumptions and analysis, including product, customer, channel and retailer-level profitability.
• Analyze revenue, gross margin and key performance indicators such as sales versus plan, sell-through, forecast accuracy and inventory turns.
• Develop scenario analyses and financial models to evaluate pricing, assortment, door count and retailer inventory changes, along with other business initiatives.
• Consolidate data from multiple systems and keep reporting accurate, complete and consistent.
• Create dashboards, management reports and presentations that clearly communicate performance and trends.
• Identify opportunities to improve reporting, forecasting, data integrity and FP&A processes.
• Support ad hoc analysis and special projects for the Director of FP&A and leadership.

What We're Looking For

• 5+ years of experience in wholesale retail planning, forecasting, merchandise planning or a related field.
• Hands-on experience building retail ladder plans that roll into a shipping forecast, specifically for a major wholesale retailer such as Walmart and Target.
• Strong understanding of retail planning, including POS, retail inventory, inventory goals, weeks of supply, shrink, markdowns and open to buy.
• Strong Excel skills and comfort working with large, complex datasets.
• Strong analytical skills with the ability to turn data into insights and recommendations.
• Financial fluency: how forecast changes flow through to revenue and gross profit.
• Experience using AI tools such as Claude to build ladder plans, scenarios and analysis is highly preferred.
• Technical curiosity and an interest in improving processes, not just maintaining them.
• Confidence to ask questions, challenge assumptions and bring a point of view.
• A hands-on, collaborative mindset and comfort working in a fast-moving environment.

Experience That's A Plus

• Experience with Walmart, Target, Amazon, Fred Meyer/Kroger or similar major retailers is highly valuable, particularly experience with retailer ladder plans, POS and inventory data or portals.
• Experience planning for major wholesale retailers within a SKU-intensive apparel business is a plus.
• Experience in FP&A is also a major plus, particularly a strong grasp of analytics and how forecasts flow through the P&L.
• If you bring strong analytical skills, relevant experience and a willingness to learn, but don't check every box, we still encourage you to apply.