Senior Forecasting Analyst

Madison Gas and Electric; Madison (AL); Hybrid; USD 110,000 - 150,000; Full time

Job summary

Madison Gas and Electric in Madison, WI seeks a Senior Forecasting Analyst to develop defensible forecasts for electric and natural gas sales, customers, and revenue, supporting budgeting, regulatory analysis, and long-range planning.

The role applies advanced statistical modeling, data analysis, and business insight to translate complex results into clear recommendations for senior leaders and cross-functional partners, while maintaining documentation and contributing to continuous improvement

Qualifications

• 5+ years of related forecasting, statistical analysis, financial analysis, or business analytics experience.
• Experience developing, validating, and communicating forecasting models using large, multi-source datasets.
• Experience with advanced spreadsheets and at least one statistical, programming, database, or business intelligence tool.
• Utility or regulated industry experience preferred.

Responsibilities

• Develop, maintain, and enhance short- and long-term forecasts of electric and natural gas sales, customer counts, and operating revenue by customer class, rate category, or other relevant business segments.
• Apply statistical and analytical techniques such as regression, time-series analysis, weather normalization, trend analysis, segmentation, sensitivity analysis, and forecast error measurement to evaluate historical results and projected outcomes.
• Analyze customer billing, usage, weather, economic, rate, and operational data to identify underlying trends, structural changes, risks, and key drivers of revenue and sales.
• Integrate forecast outputs with budgets, long-range financial plans, regulatory analyses, resource planning assumptions, and other enterprise planning processes.
• Perform actual-to-forecast variance analysis and clearly explain the effects of weather, customer growth, usage patterns, rates, economic conditions, and other business factors.
• Design and maintain repeatable forecasting processes, analytical datasets, dashboards, and reporting tools that improve accuracy, efficiency, transparency, and control.
• Develop scenarios and sensitivities to evaluate uncertainty and the financial implications of alternative weather, economic, customer, rate, and market assumptions.
• Validate models and data through back-testing, reasonableness checks, reconciliation, peer review, and ongoing monitoring of forecast performance.
• Partner with business and technical teams to define data requirements, resolve data-quality issues, and improve access to reliable, well-governed information.
• Communicate assumptions, methodologies, results, limitations, and recommendations in a clear manner for technical and non-technical audiences, including senior management.
• Maintain comprehensive documentation of data sources, model logic, assumptions, controls, changes, and forecast decisions to support continuity, review, and auditability.
• Monitor relevant utility, customer, technology, and economic developments and assess their potential implications for electric and natural gas sales and revenue forecasts.
• Provide analytical leadership, support continuous improvement, and serve as a subject matter resource for revenue and sales forecasting.

Skills

Forecasting

Data analysis

Statistical modeling

Communication

Cross-functional collaboration

Documentation

Education

Bachelor’s degree in Finance, Economics, Statistics, Data Analytics, Business Analytics, Computer Science, or related field

Tools

Spreadsheets

Databases

BI tools

Statistical software

Job description

Job Purpose

Madison Gas and Electric is seeking a Senior Forecasting Analyst to support and continuously improve electric and natural gas sales, customer, revenue, and peak-demand forecasting. In this senior-level individual contributor role, you will apply advanced statistical modeling, financial analysis, and business insight to develop defensible forecasts that support budgeting, regulatory analysis, resource planning, and long-range decision-making. This is an opportunity to translate complex data into clear, actionable recommendations for senior leaders and cross-functional partners while helping shape critical planning decisions for a reliable, forward-looking energy company.

Core Responsibilities

Note: This list is not all-inclusive

• Develop, maintain, and enhance short- and long-term forecasts of electric and natural gas sales, customer counts, and operating revenue by customer class, rate category, or other relevant business segments.
• Apply statistical and analytical techniques such as regression, time-series analysis, weather normalization, trend analysis, segmentation, sensitivity analysis, and forecast error measurement to evaluate historical results and projected outcomes.
• Analyze customer billing, usage, weather, economic, rate, and operational data to identify underlying trends, structural changes, risks, and key drivers of revenue and sales.
• Integrate forecast outputs with budgets, long-range financial plans, regulatory analyses, resource planning assumptions, and other enterprise planning processes.
• Perform actual-to-forecast variance analysis and clearly explain the effects of weather, customer growth, usage patterns, rates, economic conditions, and other business factors.
• Design and maintain repeatable forecasting processes, analytical datasets, dashboards, and reporting tools that improve accuracy, efficiency, transparency, and control.
• Develop scenarios and sensitivities to evaluate uncertainty and the financial implications of alternative weather, economic, customer, rate, and market assumptions.
• Validate models and data through back-testing, reasonableness checks, reconciliation, peer review, and ongoing monitoring of forecast performance.
• Partner with business and technical teams to define data requirements, resolve data-quality issues, and improve access to reliable, well-governed information.
• Communicate assumptions, methodologies, results, limitations, and recommendations in a clear manner for technical and non-technical audiences, including senior management.
• Maintain comprehensive documentation of data sources, model logic, assumptions, controls, changes, and forecast decisions to support continuity, review, and auditability.
• Monitor relevant utility, customer, technology, and economic developments and assess their potential implications for electric and natural gas sales and revenue forecasts.
• Provide analytical leadership, support continuous improvement, and serve as a subject matter resource for revenue and sales forecasting.

Behavioral Competencies

• Business Acumen – Connects analytical results to utility operations, financial performance, customer behavior, regulatory considerations, and other business decisions.
• Analytical Judgment – Selects appropriate methods, tests assumptions, recognizes limitations, and balances model output with informed business judgment.
• Strategic Thinking – Anticipates emerging trends and develops forward-looking insights that support long-term planning.
• Communication – Explains complex analyses, uncertainty, and recommendations clearly and concisely for the intended audience.
• Collaboration – Builds effective relationships across functions and incorporates diverse operational and technical perspectives.
• Ownership and Accountability – Delivers accurate, timely work; maintains strong controls and documentation; and follows issues through resolution.
• Continuous Improvement – Identifies practical opportunities to improve forecast quality, process efficiency, data reliability, and analytical capability.
• Adaptability and Learning Agility – Learns new data, tools, methods, and business concepts and applies them effectively in changing conditions.

Skills

• Revenue and Sales Forecasting – Develops defensible electric and natural gas sales, customer, and revenue forecasts. (Advanced)
• Data Analysis – Organizes, reconciles, and analyzes large and complex datasets to identify meaningful business insights. (Advanced)
• Statistical Analysis – Applies appropriate statistical methods, evaluates model performance, and interprets results and limitations. (Advanced)
• Utility and Financial Analysis – Connects customer usage and billing results to rates, revenue, budgets, and financial outcomes. (Advanced)
• Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis – Evaluates alternative assumptions and communicates the range and drivers of potential outcomes. (Advanced)
• Data Visualization and Communication – Creates clear dashboards, reports, and presentations that support decision-making. (Advanced)
• Data Management and Controls – Maintains reliable data, repeatable processes, documentation, version control, and quality assurance procedures. (Advanced)
• Analytical Tools – Uses spreadsheets, databases, visualization tools, and statistical or programming tools to automate and scale analysis. (Advanced)

Education

• Bachelor’s degree in Finance, Economics, Statistics, Data Analytics, Business Analytics, Computer Science, or a related field required; master’s degree or relevant certification preferred.

Experience

• 5+ years of related forecasting, statistical analysis, financial analysis, or business analytics experience.
• Experience developing, validating, and communicating forecasting models using large, multi-source datasets.
• Experience with advanced spreadsheets and at least one statistical, programming, database, or business intelligence tool.
• Utility or regulated industry experience preferred.

Work Location

• This hybrid role is based at our Madison, WI headquarters and will require a mix of office and field work. While three days onsite is the minimum, team collaboration and business needs may require additional in-office presence.

Pre-employment will require satisfactory completion of a background check and drug screen.We are an AA/EOE employer and consider all qualified candidates without regard to protected status.