Political Risk Expert - Fully Remote | Upto $250/Hr

Mercor; San Francisco (CA); Hybrid; GBP 155,000 - 259,000; Part time

Job summary

Mercor is seeking a senior Political Expert for Elections Forecasting & Political Risk. This contract role offers remote work with compensation between $150 and $250 per hour. Responsibilities include producing timely political forecasts, evaluating polling data, and explaining causal impacts on markets.

You will work independently to meet deadlines and help improve AI model performance. Ideal candidates have 8+ years of relevant experience, strong polling literacy, and a proven ability to make

Qualifications

• Senior elections forecaster, campaign strategist, polling or political-risk analyst.
• Record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds.
• Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis.
• 8+ years of direct experience or equivalent performance.

Responsibilities

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard.
• Work independently and asynchronously to meet deadlines while improving AI model performance.

Skills

Polling literacy

Causal event analysis

Live judgment ability

Independent work

Job description

About the job

Mercor connects elite creative and technical talent with leading AI research labs. Headquartered in San Francisco, our investors include Benchmark, General Catalyst, Peter Thiel, Adam D'Angelo, Larry Summers, and Jack Dorsey.

Position: Political Expert — Elections Forecasting & Political Risk
Type: Contract
Compensation: $150–$250/hour
Location: Remote

Role Responsibilities

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard.
• Work independently and asynchronously to meet deadlines while improving AI model performance.

Qualifications

Must-Have

• A senior elections forecaster, campaign strategist, polling or statistical-methodology expert, or political-risk analyst.
• A record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds.
• Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis.
• 8+ years of direct experience or unusually strong evidence of equivalent performance.

Preferred

• Experience with top national polling and election-forecasting organizations, major decision desks, or senior analytics teams from presidential, Senate, or governor races.
• Background in political-risk desks at leading banks, funds, or firms such as Eurasia Group and EIU.

Resources & Support

• For details about the interview process and platform information, please check: https://talent.docs.mercor.com/welcome
• For any help or support, reach out to: [e-mail]