Head of Predictions & Optimization

CONFIDO; New York (NY); On-site; USD 180,000 - 260,000; Full time

Benefits offered by this job

Equity

Health coverage

Dental & Vision

Fertility support

Parental leave

Unlimited PTO

401k

Relocation assistance

Workspace stipend

Team perks

Job summary

Confido in New York, NY is seeking a Head of Prediction & Optimization to build and lead the data science function for Revenue Growth Management, owning models that drive pricing, promotions, and strategic decisions.

You will hire and mentor 3+ data scientists, collaborate with AI/ML engineers and the CTO, and shape the roadmap while relocation support is offered.

Qualifications

• 7+ years of applied data science or predictive modeling, including experience leading projects or people.
• Deep expertise in statistical modeling and ML for pricing, demand, or forecasting, such as elasticity, causal inference, or uplift modeling.
• Experience building optimization or decision-support models, beyond predictions alone.
• Strong Python and SQL, plus rigor about validation: you know how to avoid leakage and when to distrust a good-looking result.
• The ability to turn a model into a clear recommendation a non-technical business user will act on.

Responsibilities

• Lead pricing and trade optimization for RGM, including price elasticity, promo lift, cannibalization, and halo effects, so you can answer "how much should I charge for this?"
• Build promotion recommendations that get specific. Should a promo run 4 weeks or 8? Should it be a deeper discount, a BOGO, or buy-3-get-1? Which regions, retailers, and accounts should get it?
• Turn predictions into prescriptions by building optimization that works under real constraints like trade budgets, margin targets, and retailer calendars
• Measure what actually worked, using post-event analysis, causal inference, and baselines that brands trust enough to change their plans
• Partner with our AI/ML engineers to take models to production, and set the bar for backtesting, evaluation, and monitoring
• Build the team: hire and mentor data scientists, and set the roadmap and technical direction alongside our CTO and AI research lead

Skills

7+ years of applied data science or

Deep expertise in statistical modeling

Experience building optimization

Strong Python and SQL

The ability to turn a model into a

Job description

Confido is the AI infrastructure powering modern CPG — the platform that 200+ brands like OLIPOP, Simple Mills, Dr. Squatch, and Tropicana use to run everything from deductions to production planning. Finance, accounting, sales, and operations, unified in one system for the first time.

We're growing 5x year over year with a small team in New York City; the people who join now will shape the product, the culture, and the company itself.

If you want your work on shelves everywhere — and outsized ownership while you build — we'd love to meet you.

THE ROLE

Tell brands what to charge, which promotions to run, and where. Back it with data almost no one else has.

Confido sees what's actually happening in the physical world of CPG: shipments, depletions, inventory, consumption, what's on the shelf, merchandising, deductions, the demographics of who lives near each store, and forward-looking promo plans. That means rich actuals and a real view of the future, across hundreds of brands. Most of this data isn't publicly available anywhere.

As Head of Prediction & Optimization, you'll build and lead Confido's data science function, starting with our newest product area: Revenue Growth Management (RGM). You'll own the models that turn a detailed picture of the business into decisions brands actually act on, and you'll grow the team to 3+ data scientists.

Location: New York, NY (Relocation supported)

WHAT YOU'LL DO

• Lead pricing and trade optimization for RGM, including price elasticity, promo lift, cannibalization, and halo effects, so you can answer "how much should I charge for this?"

• Build promotion recommendations that get specific. Should a promo run 4 weeks or 8? Should it be a deeper discount, a BOGO, or buy-3-get-1? Which regions, retailers, and accounts should get it?

• Turn predictions into prescriptions by building optimization that works under real constraints like trade budgets, margin targets, and retailer calendars

• Measure what actually worked, using post-event analysis, causal inference, and baselines that brands trust enough to change their plans

• Partner with our AI/ML engineers to take models to production, and set the bar for backtesting, evaluation, and monitoring

• Build the team: hire and mentor data scientists, and set the roadmap and technical direction alongside our CTO and AI research lead

WHAT WE'RE LOOKING FOR

Required

• 7+ years of applied data science or predictive modeling, including experience leading projects or people

• Deep expertise in statistical modeling and ML for pricing, demand, or forecasting, such as elasticity, causal inference, or uplift modeling

• Experience building optimization or decision-support models, beyond predictions alone

• Strong Python and SQL, plus rigor about validation: you know how to avoid leakage and when to distrust a good-looking result

• The ability to turn a model into a clear recommendation a non-technical business user will act on

Nice to have

• RGM, trade promotion, pricing, or revenue management experience in CPG, retail, or marketplaces

• Experience with syndicated or retailer data (Nielsen, SPINS, Circana, retailer POS)

• Taking models to production yourself. We're indexed on modeling, but end-to-end is a plus

• Operations research or mathematical optimization (MIP, solvers)

• Startup or 0-to-1 team-building experience

Perks + Benefits

• Equity — own a meaningful piece of the company you’re helping build

• Fully paid health coverage through Aetna — we cover 100% of employee premiums

• Top-tier dental and vision coverage through Guardian

• Carrot Fertility Pro — comprehensive fertility and family-forming support

• 12 weeks of paid parental leave

• Unlimited PTO — plus regular 4-day holiday weekends we actually take

• 401(k) through Vestwell

• Paid relocation support — we’ll help you make the move to NYC

• Fully equipped workspace from day one — laptop, monitor, keyboard, and a $200 stipend to personalize your setup

• Team perks — catered Friday lunches, team dinners, and unlimited coffee + snacks featuring products from the brands we work with

Confido provides equal employment opportunities to all employees and applicants for employment and prohibits discrimination and harassment of any type without regard to race, color, religion, age, sex, national origin, disability status, genetics, protected veteran status, sexual orientation, gender identity or expression, or any other characteristic protected by federal, state or local laws.