PhD Candidate in Flood Risk Modelling for the Financial Sector (Pillar 1)

University of Amsterdam; Amsterdam; On-site; EUR 36,000 - 45,000; Full time

Benefits offered by this job

Holiday allowance

Year-end bonus

ABP pension

Open lectures

Development opportunities

Job summary

The University of Amsterdam invites applications for a PhD candidate position focused on advancing flood risk models for financial applications in delta regions. The project emphasizes dependencies between dike defenses, emergency measures, and extreme precipitation, with close collaboration with industry partners.

You will develop probabilistic distributions for rainfall events and test models in case studies across the Netherlands, contributing to impactful policy-relevant research and

Qualifications

• Master’s degree in Civil Engineering, Hydrology, Actuarial Science, Econometrics, Applied Mathematics or related field.
• Affinity with quantitative risk analysis and probabilistic modelling.
• Experience with programming (Python, R or similar) and working with large datasets.
• Fluency in English is essential; proficiency in Dutch is an asset.

Responsibilities

• Develop and improve flood risk modelling for delta regions and extreme precipitation for the financial sector.
• Incorporate dependencies between flood defenses and emergency measures in risk models.
• Construct probabilistic rainfall event size distributions from radar imagery.
• Collaborate with Nationale-Nederlanden and FIRM partners; publish findings in journals.

Skills

Quantitative risk analysis

Python/R programming

English fluency

Team collaboration

Communication skills

Education

Master’s degree in Civil Engineering, Hydrology, Actuarial Science, Econometrics, Applied Mathematics, or related field

Job description

Are you interested in the impact of climate change and climate adaptation on flood risk and what this implies for insurers and other financial institutions? Are you motivated to bridge the gap between flood risk models and actuarial models that determine insurance premiums and capital requirements?

Working at the UvA

Are you our new colleague?

We are looking for a PhD candidate who will develop more realistic flood risk models for financial applications from stress testing of a sector to pricing of individual properties. In this project, you will work on improving flood risk assessment in delta regions by, for example, explicitly incorporating dependencies between dike failures or the spatial extent of rainfall events in flood risk modelling.

• A good salary Your salary will be determined on the basis of your experience and seniority, in accordance with the Labour agreement. Your grading and therefore the amounts mentioned are based on full employment of 38 hours per week.
• 232 vacation hours We also offer parental leave, partner leave and social engagement leave. Through the Employment Conditions Menu Card, there are opportunities for even more vacation hours.
• Financial arrangements On top of your salary, you receive holiday allowance (8%) and a year-end bonus (8.3%). You build up a good pension with ABP. And in addition, we offer many other allowances and schemes.
• Career development and room for growth The UvA encourages you to continue to professionalise through training courses and open UvA lectures.
• Family matters Relocating to the Netherlands with your family? Find out about daycare, schooling, health insurance or employment options and support for your partner or spouse. Including the IDCN-network which provides support for your spouse through various training sessions, social activities, and networking events.

About FIRM

Flood Insurance and Risk Management (FIRM) is a five-year research programme (2026–2030), funded by TKI Deltatechnologie, Nationale-Nederlanden and contributions from more than 10 partners from academia, the financial sector, engineering consultancies and government. The central aim of FIRM is to estimate flood and water nuisance risk information as realistically as possible and to make it suitable for use in the financial sector.

FIRM consists of four substantive research pillars and a work package on knowledge transfer. This vacancy concerns a PhD position within Pillar 1. You will collaborate closely with the PhD candidates in the other pillars. You will be supervised by researchers at the University of Amsterdam and work together with experts from the field.

This Is What You Will Be Doing

This PhD project focuses on improving the modelling of flood risks due to failure if flood defenses in delta regions and floods because of extreme precipitation for the financial sector, including the effects of climate change and possible interventions. For the failure of flood defenses, the goal is to incorporate and quantify 1) interdependencies because of interaction between flood defenses in a delta region, 2) emergency measures and 3) previously unaccounted-for strength into the modelling of flood risk in flood risk models. For extreme precipitation, the research will focus on the uncertainty of the size of an extreme rainfall event (such as Limburg 2021 or summer storms); this research focuses on constructing a probability distribution for the size of a possible rainfall event. The project consists of:

• Improving flood risk modelling (the combination of the probability of failure of a flood defense, the consequences and the damage) in delta regions by explicitly incorporating dependencies between dike sections and the effect of emergency measures in the risk modelling;
• Improving flood risk modelling for precipitation in delta regions by incorporating the spatial extent of an event based on radar imagery;
• Developing adaptation pathways for insurers and other financial institutions to reduce risk for the financial sector as the overall societal risk and costs;
• Applying the above research questions and testing the developed models in case studies in the Netherlands, in collaboration with the project partners.

Main duties and responsibilities

• Developing and implementing the BREACH+ method, including system behaviour, the effectiveness of emergency measures and residual strength in sets of flood events;
• Constructing a probabilistic rainfall event size distribution for the Netherlands based on radar imagery and integrating this into a precipitation risk model for financial applications;
• Quantifying the effect of climate change (as KNMI’23 and future updates based in IPCC) and adaptation pathways on the expected annual damage, insurance premium and total costs;
• Applying the models in case studies in the Netherlands in collaboration with Nationale-Nederlanden and other FIRM partners;
• Presenting research findings at international conferences and publishing in leading peer‑reviewed journals;
• Completing a PhD thesis within four years;
• Contributing to teaching activities (approximately 20% of your time), including tutorials and supervision of theses.

This Is What We Ask Of You

This is an interdisciplinary project that combines hydraulic engineering, probabilistic risk analysis, actuarial science and data science. We realize that candidates will usually have expertise in one of these fields and ask for a genuine interest in the others.

• A Master’s degree (or completion before September 2026) in Civil Engineering, Hydrology, Actuarial Science, Econometrics, Applied Mathematics or a related field;
• Affinity with quantitative risk analysis and probabilistic modelling;
• Experience with programming (Python, R or similar) and working with large datasets;
• Ability to communicate complex technical findings to non‑specialists in the financial sector and in government;
• A collaborative mindset — FIRM is a team effort involving researchers, insurers, engineers and policymakers;
• Fluency in English is essential. Proficiency in Dutch is an asset;
• Intellectual curiosity, attention to detail and the drive to successfully complete a four‑year research project.

Applications that do not satisfy all listed requirements will not be taken into consideration.

Supervisors: Prof. dr. Bas Kolen (UvA, HKV)

• Prof. dr. ir. Michel Vellekoop (UvA)

Your place at the UvA

This Is What We Offer You

• A temporary employment contract for 38 hours per week for a duration of 4 years (initial contract of 18 months, extended upon positive evaluation). The position should lead to a PhD thesis;
• A gross monthly salary ranging from € 3,204 (year 1) to € 4,051 (year 4), scale P, excluding 8% holiday allowance and 8.3% year‑end bonus. The UFO profile “PhD Candidate” applies. The 30% ruling may apply to non‑Dutch candidates;
• An ambitious, international and collegial research environment within the Actuarial Science and Mathematical Finance research group at the Amsterdam School of Economics, in the heart of Amsterdam;
• A position in a large national research consortium, with direct access to unique insurance claims data and hydraulic model sets;
• Collaboration with leading financial institutions and water management organizations, with regular opportunities to present findings to practitioners;
• Access to the broad range of training, career and development opportunities at the UvA, including the support programme "Mastering my PhD" (for doctoral candidates).

The collective labour agreement of Dutch universities applies.

The UvA has an extensive package of fringe benefits, including

• 29 days' holiday with full employment & extra holidays between Christmas and the New Year;
• Excellent work (from home) facilities;
• reimbursement of commuting expenses;
• pension accrual with ABP;
• In addition, the UvA offers excellent study and development opportunities and encourages employees to continue their professional development;
• You may participate in the open UvA lectures with which you can earn up to 30 credits per year.

More About The UvA

The University of Amsterdam is ambitious, creative and committed. An inspiration to students since 1632, a vanguard player in international science and a partner in innovation.

The University of Amsterdam is the largest university in the Netherlands, with the broadest range of courses on offer. An intellectual hub with 42,000 students, 6,000 staff and 3,000 PhD students. Connected by a culture of curiosity.

Diversity, Equity & Inclusion

As an employer, the UvA maintains an equal opportunities policy. We value diversity and are fully committed to being a place where everyone feels at home. We nurture inquisitive minds and perseverance and allow room for persistent questioning. With us, curiosity and creativity are the prevailing culture.

Studies show that women and members of underrepresented groups only apply for jobs if they meet 100% of the qualifications. Do you meet the educational requirements but not yet all of the requested experience? The UvA encourages you to apply anyway.