Senior Actuary

Central East Integrated Care Board; Ely; On-site; GBP 70,000 - 90,000; Full time

Job summary

Central East ICB in the NHS England region is seeking a Senior Actuary to lead actuarial modelling, forecasting and risk assessment across population health and financial sustainability. You will collaborate with health economists, data scientists and clinicians to produce robust forecasts and support decision-making.

Applicants should have substantial actuarial experience in healthcare, proficiency in R/Python/SQL, and a commitment to professional development within a multidisciplinary team.

Qualifications

• Associate or equivalent actuarial qualification or substantial progress toward Fellowship.
• Evidence of continuing professional development and wider contribution to the profession.
• Experience applying actuarial methods to health/population problems.

Responsibilities

• Develop and apply actuarial models to understand population need, service demand and financial risk.
• Produce projections and forecasts using appropriate actuarial methods and assumptions.
• Translate findings to decision-makers and support strategic planning and commissioning.

Skills

Actuarial modelling

Forecasting

Data analysis

Stakeholder comms

Healthcare experience

Education

AIA/AFA or equivalent

CPD evidence

Wider actuarial contribution

Tools

R

Python

SQL

Job description

We are Central East ICB, the new organisationentrusted with serving more than 3.5 million people across Bedfordshire, Luton, Milton Keynes, Cambridgeshire and Peterborough and Hertfordshire.

We are responsible for making sure that the NHS can continue to support our community – now, and in the future. Everything we do will be guided by our core purpose: to do what best serves the population of this area.

We promise to focus on what makes the biggest difference to people’s lives – acting earlier to help prevent illness and detect disease and making it easier for our community to get the health care they need, closer to home, whenever that’s possible.

Read about our priorities in our strategy document, Our Way .

Job overview

The Senior Actuary is a senior analytical and technical role within the Strategic Value Unit, working across the integrated Strategic Value Unit and Population Health Unit.

The postholder will apply actuarial methods to support strategic commissioning, population health management, service transformation, evaluation and financial sustainability. They will undertake complex analysis of population need, demand, utilisation, expenditure and financial risk, providing evidence to support planning and decision-making across the Integrated Care Board.

Working within a multidisciplinary decision intelligence function, the postholder will collaborate with actuaries, health economists, data scientists, public health specialists, finance professionals, commissioners and clinicians to develop robust forecasts, assess uncertainty and support evidence-based decisions.

Proposed Interview dates: 19th - 20th November

Main duties of the job

The postholder will undertake complex actuarial work from problem definition and data specification through modelling, validation, interpretation and communication.

The role will:

• deliver actuarial analysis and modelling supporting ICB priorities;
• develop forecasts of population need, demand, utilisation, expenditure and financial risk;
• contribute to strategic planning, commissioning and financial sustainability work;
• support the development and assessment of population-based funding and risk-sharing approaches;
• undertake assurance, validation and peer review of actuarial analyses and models;
• communicate actuarial evidence and uncertainty to technical and non-technical audiences;
• contribute to the development of actuarial and wider analytical capability across the organisation.

Working for our organisation

We are committed to promoting equal opportunities to achieve equity of access, experience and outcomes and to recognising and valuing people’s differences. We are passionate about creating an inclusive workplace that promotes and values diversity; we see this as a strength and part of our founding mission, values and behaviours. We know through experience that different ideas, perspectives and backgrounds create a stronger and more creative work environment that delivers patient outcomes.

We are committed to creating the best place to work, where your contribution is valued, your wellbeing is supported and all our colleagues can reach their full potential. We welcome and encourage applications from all areas of the community, who meet the criteria for the role, regardless of their protected characteristic. We work to ensure that our recruitment processes are as inclusive as possible to everyone, including making adjustments for people who have a disability or long‑term condition and support with the recruitment process for people with lived experience.

We are happy to discuss flexible working options for all roles.

We operate a Carer friendly working environment that is supportive and inclusive. We actively encourage Carers to self‑identify themselves.

We are a Disability Confident Employer and commit to shortlisting suitable applicants who meet the essential criteria for an interview. Please inform us of any adjustments you may require.

Detailed job description and main responsibilities

A.Actuarial modelling, forecasting and risk

• Develop and apply actuarial models to understand population need, service demand, utilisation, outcomes, expenditure and financial risk.
• Produce projections and forecasts using appropriate actuarial methods and assumptions.
• Apply scenario, sensitivity and probabilistic techniques to assess uncertainty and risk.
• Monitor model performance and identify opportunities for refinement and improvement.

• Ensure assumptions, limitations and uncertainty are clearly documented and communicated.

B.Strategic planning and financial sustainability

• Support strategic planning and commissioning by modelling the impact of population change, service transformation and alternative demand scenarios.
• Assess the implications of demographic and non-demographic growth for future resource requirements.
• Contribute to analyses of financial sustainability, affordability and risk.

• Assist in understanding the drivers of expenditure and utilisation and the distinction between underlying trends and short‑term variation.

C.Commissioning, payment and resource allocation

• Support evaluation of commissioning and payment approaches, including population‑based budgets, risk adjustment, capitated arrangements and risk‑sharing mechanisms.
• Contribute actuarial analysis to business cases, commissioning proposals and service redesign initiatives.

• Work with finance, commissioning and health economics colleagues to assess the relationship between financial risk, incentives and outcomes.

D.Data, assumptions and assurance

• Analyse large, complex population, activity, utilisation, outcome, cost and financial datasets.
• Assess data quality, completeness, bias and fitness for purpose.
• Develop and document assumptions using historical experience, trend analysis, external evidence and professional judgement.
• Undertake validation, peer review and quality assurance of actuarial analyses.

• Maintain reproducible analytical approaches and appropriate technical documentation.

E.Insight, communication and multidisciplinary working

• Translate complex actuarial findings into clear recommendations for decision‑makers.
• Present forecasts, assumptions, risks and uncertainty in a way that is accessible to non‑specialist audiences.
• Contribute actuarial content to strategic plans, committee papers, option appraisals, evaluations and business cases.
• Work collaboratively with health economists, data scientists, public health specialists, finance teams and commissioners.

• Support implementation and monitoring of decisions informed by actuarial analysis.

F.Professional and organisational development

• Maintain professional actuarial knowledge and skills through continuing professional development.
• Contribute to the development of actuarial methods, modelling standards and shared analytical resources.
• Support the development of less experienced analysts and actuarial trainees where appropriate.

• Contribute to a culture of learning, collaboration and continuous improvement.

Person specification

Qualifications

• Associate of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (AIA/AFA), an equivalent recognised actuarial qualification, or demonstrable substantial progress through the professional actuarial qualification pathway towards Fellowship.
• Evidence of continuing professional development and compliance with relevant actuarial professional standards.
• Evidence of wider contribution to the actuarial or analytical profession.

Knowledge

• Experience applying actuarial methods to complex financial, population, risk or resource‑planning problems.
• Experience developing actuarial forecasts and risk models using complex datasets.
• Experience developing assumptions using historical experience, trend analysis and professional judgement.
• Experience assuring or validating actuarial or financial models.
• Experience working within healthcare, health insurance, social care or a population health setting.
• Experience evaluating payment models, risk adjustment, capitation or risk‑sharing arrangements.
• Fluency using R, Python, SQL or specialist actuarial software.

Skills

• Ability to structure complex analytical problems and select appropriate actuarial approaches.
• Ability to develop and quality assure actuarial models and forecasts.
• Ability to assess and communicate uncertainty, variability and financial risk.
• Ability to synthesise actuarial, financial, operational and population evidence into clear recommendations.

Please Note:

• This vacancy may close before the advertised closing date if a sufficient number of suitable applications are received. We recommend submitting your application early to avoid disappointment.
• Successfully shortlisted applicants will be contacted by email with an invitation to interview.
• Please note that we do not pay interview expenses, all costs are incurred by the candidate.

Notes on completion of applications:

• All reference requests will be made to your employer/previous employers' HR Department, covering the previous 3 years of activity.
• We are committed to safeguarding and promoting the welfare of children, young people and vulnerable adults, and expect all staff to undertake this commitment. Applicants will be subject to robust safer recruitment processes.
• All eligible staff will need to have gained clearance through a standard/enhanced DBS check prior to working.
• All posts are subject to a probationary period.

Employer certification / accreditation badges

You must have appropriate UK professional registration.

Name Sam Williamson

Job title Deputy Director of Health Economics and Evaluation

Email address [e-mail]

Additional information

Joao Rocha - [e-mail]