Dynamic flood exposure in Denmark: where will people live when the water comes?

Technical Sciences - Institut for Miljøvidenskab; Roskilde; On-site; DKK 360,000 - 480,000; Full time

Job summary

Aarhus University invites applications for a PhD fellowship in the Environmental Science programme. The project studies dynamic flood exposure in Denmark and how household location decisions shape risk and costs for climate adaptation.

The position starts 01 January 2027 or later. The work combines econometrics with register data, a discrete choice experiment, and agent-based modelling, with co-financing by DMI.

Qualifications

• M.Sc. in economics or spatial data analyses or a closely related quantitative field.
• Training in econometrics and experience with R, Python or Stata
• Good written and oral English

Responsibilities

• Conduct register-based analyses of who lives in flood-prone areas in Denmark.
• Develop hedonic price analyses of how flood risk is capitalized in housing prices.
• Estimate how households respond to explicit risk information using discrete choice methods.
• Integrate results into an agent-based model to project exposure trajectories under different scenarios.

Skills

Econometrics

R/Python/Stata

English proficiency

Education

M.Sc. in economics or spatial data analyses

Tools

R

Python

Stata

Job description

Dynamic flood exposure in Denmark: where will people live when the water comes?

Applicants are invited for a PhD fellowship/scholarship at Graduate School of Technical Sciences, Aarhus University, Denmark, within the Environmental Science programme. The position is available from 01 January 2027 or later.

Title

Dynamic flood exposure in Denmark: where will people live when the water comes?

Research area and project description

The overarching aim of this PhD project is to understand how flood exposure in Denmark evolves over time as a result of household location decisions, and to make that dynamic available for cost–benefit analysis of climate adaptation. This is a quantitative PhD: the work combines applied econometrics on Danish register and property-transaction data, a discrete choice experiment, and agent‑based simulation modelling. The project is co‑financed by the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) and Aarhus University, and the PhD student will be part of the research environments at both institutions.

The project in a nutshell: Cost–benefit analyses of flood adaptation in Denmark evaluate investments over horizons of 80–100 years, yet they treat the spatial distribution of people, buildings and assets as fixed at today's values. Over the coming decades, urban development, demographic change and the gradual repricing of flood risk by insurers, banks and public authorities will reshape who lives in flood‑prone areas and what is at risk. At the same time, Danish evidence suggests that flood risk is only weakly reflected in property prices and settlement patterns – households appear to locate under incomplete information about the risk they face. This PhD project treats flood exposure as an emergent outcome of household behavior rather than a fixed physical quantity, and develops an agent‑based model of household location decisions under bounded rationality that can project exposure to 2075 under alternative scenarios for institutional risk signals: business as usual, insurance repricing, tighter mortgage lending, and full information.

Qualifications and specific competences

Required qualifications:

• An M.Sc. in economics or spatial data analyses or a closely related quantitative field
• Training in econometrics and experience with R, Python or Stata
• Good written and oral English

It is an advantage, but not a requirement, if you have:

• Experience with panel data, difference-in-differences, hedonic analysis or discrete choice modelling
• Experience with large administrative datasets, e.g. Danmarks Statistik registers
• Experience with or curiosity about agent‑based modelling
• Reading proficiency in Danish

We do not expect any candidate to have all of these requirements. The PhD programme includes training in register data, choice experiment design and agent‑based modelling, and you will be supervised closely throughout the scholarship. If you have a solid quantitative foundation and are interested in the questions, we encourage you to apply.

Qualifications and specific competences: The ideal candidate is highly motivated candidate with an M.Sc. degree with specialization in economics and spatial data analyses, or closely related quantitative fields. Demonstrated oral and written communication skills in English are required. The applicant is expected to present results at international conferences and publish them in international peer‑reviewed journals. The applicant should be interested in working in an international and interdisciplinary academic environment. The following qualifications are an advantage, but we do not expect any candidate to have them all:

The role of the PhD student in this project will be particularly focused on the following objectives:

• a register‑based analysis of who lives in flood‑prone areas in Denmark and how residential mobility responds to flood events, using Danmarks Statistik microdata linked to building and flood hazard data;
• a hedonic price analysis of the extent to which flood risk is capitalized in Danish property prices, including event studies around major flood events;
• a discrete choice experiment estimating how households respond to explicit risk information and to changed signals from insurers, banks and public authorities;
• the integration of these results into an agent‑based model that simulates exposure trajectories under alternative institutional scenarios and delivers inputs for flood cost‑benefit analysis.

The PhD student will enter a research environment with a strong focus on climate adaptation. At the Department of Environmental Science, the student will join the Environmental Social Science and Geography section, which works on environmental valuation, flood damage modelling and the economics of climate adaptation. At DMI, the student will be part of the National Center for Climate Research that produce Danish flood hazard data and climate projections for decision‑making at national and municipal levels in Denmark. The student will have office space at both institutions and is expected to take part in the daily research life at both.

Place of employment and place of work

The place of employment is Aarhus University, and the place of work is Department of Environmental Science, Frederiksborgvej 399, Aarhus University, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark.

Contacts

• Senior Researcher Toke Emil Panduro, e‑mail: [e-mail] (main supervisor)
• Researcher Karsten Arnbjerg Nielsen, e‑mail: [e-mail] (co‑supervisor)

For information about application requirements and mandatory attachments, please see our application guide. If answers cannot be found there, please contact:

• [e-mail]

Application deadline is 15 November 2026 23:59 CET.

Preferred starting date is 01 January 2027.

Please make a project description (½–4 pages). The project description should describe your ideas and research plans for this specific project. If you wish to, you can indicate an URL where further information can be found.

Please note:

• Only documents received prior to the application deadline will be evaluated. Thus, documents sent after deadline will not be considered.
• The programme committee may request further information or invite the applicant to attend an interview.
• Shortlisting will be used, which means that the evaluation committee only will evaluate the most relevant applications.

Formalities and salary range

Salary and terms as agreed between the Danish Ministry of Taxation and the Confederation of Professional Unions. You will be employed as an academic staff member at basic salary grades 4–8. As a PhD fellow you will also receive a monthly non‑pensionable allowance.

Aarhus University’s ambition is to be an attractive and inspiring workplace for all and to foster a culture in which each individual has opportunities to thrive, achieve and develop. We view equality and diversity as assets, and we welcome all applicants.

The application must be submitted via the online recruitment system, which can be accessed under ‘How to apply’.