Modelling / Forecasting Senior Analyst (Quants)

TD; Canada; On-site; CAD 60,000 - 80,000; Full time

Job summary

A leading financial institution is seeking a dedicated credit risk model developer in Toronto. The successful candidate will develop credit risk models, ensuring compliance with regulations and collaborating with internal units. With a focus on predictive modeling using statistical techniques, this role demands strong leadership and analytical skills. Ideal candidates possess a relevant university degree and programming experience in SAS, SQL, Python, or R, along with 3+ years in the banking industry.

Benefits

Health and well-being benefits

Savings and retirement programs

Career development opportunities

Qualifications

• Strong knowledge of statistical model development and validation techniques.
• Three or more years of experience in retail banking or credit risk modeling.
• Proficiency with large datasets for data mining and predictive modeling.

Responsibilities

• Develop and validate credit risk models for retail credit portfolios.
• Collaborate with internal and external stakeholders on model approvals.
• Provide deep analysis of credit risk drivers under various scenarios.

Skills

Statistical analysis

Data mining

Predictive modeling

Leadership

Communication

Education

University degree in Statistics or related field

Tools

SAS

SQL

Python

R

MATLAB

Job description

Work Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Hours: 37.5

Line of Business: Analytics, Insights, & Artificial Intelligence

Pay Details: - TD is committed to providing fair and equitable compensation opportunities to all colleagues. Growth opportunities and skill development are defining features of the colleague experience at TD. Our compensation policies and practices have been designed to allow colleagues to progress through the salary range over time as they progress in their role. The base pay actually offered may vary based upon the candidate's skills and experience, job-related knowledge, geographic location, and other specific business and organizational needs. As a candidate, you are encouraged to ask compensation related questions and have an open dialogue with your recruiter who can provide you more specific details for this role.

Job Description

Department Overview: The Retail Expected Loss Model Development group within the TD Bank Group (TDBG) Model Development department is responsible for modelling credit risk in all TDBG retail credit product portfolios (including mortgages, home equity products, indirect auto loans, credit cards, and small business products).

Job Description: In this position, the individual will be responsible for the development, initial validation, documentation, and support in all stages of audit, implementation and ongoing monitoring of account-level models for credit risk parameters (PD, EAD, and LGD) for all TDBG retail credit product portfolios. The individual will also be responsible for updating/re-developing existing models for these portfolios as required.

These predictive models serve as the basis for establishing default, exposure and loss parameter estimates for use in calculating Risk-Weighted Assets (RWA) for TDBG retail credit exposures under the Basel III AIRB approach. They will also be used to calculate loan loss allowance and economic capital for these portfolios, as well as calculate expected credit losses, RWA, loan loss allowance and economic capital under various macroeconomic scenarios included in the Bank's internal and regulatory stress tests.

The position will involve interactions with TDBG Model Validation, Model Risk Management, Internal Audit, and external auditors, as well as with the Bank's Canadian (OSFI) and US (OCC and FED) banking regulators, in order to support their review and approval process for the risk parameter models. The position will ensure compliance with the TDBG Model Risk Policy, Capital Model Approval Policy, Data Governance requirements, and other relevant policies and regulatory requirements.

The individual will closely work with and actively support TDBG Retail Risk Management, as well as retail credit product and finance areas by providing a deep analysis of credit risk drivers and parameters under various scenarios for the respective retail credit portfolios. This will entail discussing key observations and conclusions derived from the data analysis and modelling with the various retail credit product, finance, and risk management groups, and assisting these groups in managing product portfolio risk and profitability.

The individual will use leading-edge technologies and develop innovative solutions in the following areas:

• Data mining by making sense of large databases of historical data related to credit risk;
• Predictive credit risk modelling based on rigorous statistical analyses of historical data, regression techniques, and econometric analyses;
• The predictive models leverage both traditional statistical techniques as well as the new AI and machine-learning methodologies;
• Estimating credit risk embedded in the Bank's retail credit product portfolios, as well as the amount of regulatory and economic capital the Bank needs to allocate against these portfolios.

This position provides excellent learning, working and career opportunities in a flexible, highly professional, and motivated team environment, as well as exposure to a variety of high-paced and intensive modelling projects and a variety of internal and external stakeholders.

Job Requirements

This position requires a combination of dedication, extremely hard work, and attention to detail on one hand, as well as quick learning, creativity, and non-standard thinking on the other. The technical skills and experience required for this position include a strong mathematical, statistical, and computer science background, as well as experience with data mining and statistical modelling. This position also requires the ability to lead a model development project and guide modelling analysts and co-op students.

A successful candidate is expected to have:

• A university degree in Statistics or a related quantitative discipline (Mathematics, Actuarial Science, Computer Science, Econometrics, Operations research);
• Strong working knowledge and hands‑on experience using programming languages such as SAS, SQL, Python, R, MATLAB in the context of data manipulation, data mining, statistical analysis, and predictive modelling;
• Proficiency in creating and manipulating large datasets for data mining and predictive statistical modelling;
• Strong knowledge of modern statistical model development and validation concepts and techniques (particularly linear and logistic regression);
• Strong problem‑solving skills, with the ability to independently identify and solve problems in an effective and timely manner;
• Strong project management skills, with the ability to successfully work with multiple stakeholders to achieve the group’s objectives;
• Strong communication skills (both written and oral), with the ability to effectively present technical, business, and project management subjects to multiple stakeholders.
• A solid track record of successful development, initial validation, documentation, and implementation of predictive statistical models;
• 3+ years of work experience in the retail banking industry, and a working knowledge of retail credit products, policies, practices, and strategies;
• A solid knowledge of concepts and methodologies used in Expected and Unexpected Loss, Allowance, Economic Capital, and regulatory stress testing for retail credit exposures;
• A working knowledge of concepts and methodologies (such as retail credit risk scoring techniques) used in the assessment of credit risk for retail credit exposures;
• 3+ years of experience with retail credit risk data, analytics, and risk modelling;
• A solid knowledge of Basel III requirements, including hands‑on experience in developing and implementing Basel II Retail AIRB models;
• Strong leadership skills and demonstrated ability and willingness to teach, guide, and lead modelling analysts and co‑op students.

Who We Are

TD is one of the world’s leading global financial institutions and is the fifth largest bank in North America by branches/stores. Every day, we deliver legendary customer experiences to over 27 million households and businesses in Canada, the United States and around the world. More than 95,000 TD colleagues bring their skills, talent, and creativity to the Bank, those we serve, and the economies we support. We are guided by our vision to Be the Better Bank and our purpose to enrich the lives of our customers, communities and colleagues.

TD is deeply committed to being a leader in customer experience, that is why we believe that all colleagues, no matter where they work, are customer facing. As we build our business and deliver on our strategy, we are innovating to enhance the customer experience and build capabilities to shape the future of banking. Whether you’ve got years of banking experience or are just starting your career in financial services, we can help you realize your potential. Through regular leadership and development conversations to mentorship and training programs, we’re here to support you towards your goals. As an organization, we keep growing – and so will you.

Our Total Rewards Package

Our Total Rewards package reflects the investments we make in our colleagues to help them and their families achieve their financial, physical, and mental well‑being goals. Total Rewards at TD includes a base salary, variable compensation, and several other key plans such as health and well‑being benefits, savings and retirement programs, paid time off, banking benefits and discounts, career development, and reward and recognition programs. Learn more

Additional Information

We’re delighted that you’re considering building a career with TD. Through regular development conversations, training programs, and a competitive benefits plan, we’re committed to providing the support our colleagues need to thrive both at work and at home. Please be advised that this job opportunity is subject to provincial regulation for employment purposes. It is imperative to acknowledge that each province or territory within the jurisdiction of Canada may have its own set of regulations, requirements.

Colleague Development

If you’re interested in a specific career path or are looking to build certain skills, we want to help you succeed. You’ll have regular career, development, and performance conversations with your manager, as well as access to an online learning platform and a variety of mentoring programs to help you unlock future opportunities. Whether you have a passion for helping customers and want to expand your experience, or you want to coach and inspire your colleagues, there are many different career paths within our organization at TD – and we’re committed to helping you identify opportunities that support your goals.

Training & Onboarding

We will provide training and onboarding sessions to ensure that you’ve got everything you need to succeed in your new role.

Interview Process

We’ll reach out to candidates of interest to schedule an interview. We do our best to communicate outcomes to all applicants by email or phone call.

Accommodation

Your accessibility is important to us. Please let us know if you’d like accommodations (including accessible meeting rooms, captioning for virtual interviews, etc.) to help us remove barriers so that you can participate throughout the interview process.

Language Requirement (Quebec only)

Sans Objet